Lecture 2_Powerpoint2007

Lecture - Click to edit Master subtitle style Lecture 2 The forecast process data consideration and model selection Data pattern • Trend •

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Unformatted text preview: Click to edit Master subtitle style 8/5/11 Lecture 2 The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Data pattern • Trend • Seasonal • Cyclical • irregular The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Trend 8/5/11 Seasonal, trend and cyclical pattern The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Linear and non-linear trend 8/5/11 Statistical Review • Descriptive Statistics – Mean – Median – Mode – Standard deviation – variance The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Normal Distribution The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Normal distribution (cont’d) σ μ 1 ± includes about 68% of the area σ μ 2 ± σ μ 3 ± includes about 95% of the area includes about 99% of the area Ζ- distribution : σ μ- = x Z (2. 1) The forecast process, data consideration and model selection 8/5/11 Example 2.1 Let us calculate the Z-values that correspond to Χ =40 and to Χ =65, given std =10 and a mean value of 50....
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Lecture - Click to edit Master subtitle style Lecture 2 The forecast process data consideration and model selection Data pattern • Trend •

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