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Unformatted text preview: 125-127Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing-Exponential smoothing method can be modified to include a trend component when the time series show a systematic upward or downward trend in the data over time. This method requires two smoothing constants, one for the smoothed forecast () and the other for the trend (). A higher value of () indicates greater emphasis on recent trend changes, while a small () places less weight on recent changes and has the effect of smoothing out the current trend. The smoothing constants are estimated using a trial and error approach.Linear Trend Forecasting Model-The trend can be estimated using simple linear regression to fit a line to a time series of historical data. The linear trend method minimizes the sum of the squared deviations to determine the characteristics of the linear equation.133-141Bias in a forecast could be intentional, driven by organizational issues. The key to generating accurate forecasts is collaborative forecasting with different partners inside and...
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This note was uploaded on 08/08/2011 for the course WCOB 2023 taught by Professor Billthompson during the Spring '07 term at Arkansas.
- Spring '07