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Lecture 5 - Announcements Earth’s Environmental Systems...

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Unformatted text preview: 1/25/2011 Announcements Earth’s Environmental Systems – Scales ENV200H1S – January 25, 2011 Tutorials start this week What to do before tutorial: Find recent article touching on a science issue complete issue, complete worksheet to hand in tutorial tutorial Read articles posted How to find your tutorial group? On Blackboard, either on your page, or by accessing alphabetized listing under the “tutorial” folder Alternatives to GNI PPP Outline (Gross National Income in Purchasing Power Parity) Human population dynamics Earth’s Environmental Systems Scales of time thermodynamics Thursday Earth’s Environmental Systems Biogeochemical cycles The Human Development Index (http://hdr.undp.org/en/statistics/hdi/) Genuine Progress Indicator Progress Indicator (http://www.pembina.org/economics/gpi) 4 Human Development Index (HDI) Some observations from the HDI Introduced by the UN Development Program in 1990 to capture quality of life. Based on personal income but also life expectancy, expectancy, child survival, adult literacy, school school enrolment at the primary, secondary and tertiary levels, gender equity, access to clean water and sanitation. 5 Sweden (average per capita income $22,600 US) ranks higher than the United States (per capita income over $30,000) Costa Rica (per capita income $8,800) but with a high level of democracy and stability ranks in the “high” development category while Saudi Arabia, (per capita incomes of $11,000) ranks only in the middle of the “medium” development group. 6 1 1/25/2011 The Genuine Progress Indicator (GDP) (GDP) 51 social, economic, and environmental indicators Per capita GDP vs GPI in Alberta (1961-2003) (1961- Demographic Transition Use Economic activity has greatly increased increased GDP (total monetary value of goods/services produced) Yet the GPI is decreasing Per capita GDP vs GPI in Alberta 19611961-2003 • The GPI does not seen to be gaining much traction • A toxic spill at a tar sands plant increases GDP as goods/services are produced to clean it up but does this make us “better off”? The GPI subtracts the “negative” elements of associated with economic activity e.g. crime, pollution, etc. e.g etc Country moves from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates Four stages Preindustrial Transitional Industrial Postindustrial 7 8 Demographic Transition Demographic Transition Population is stabilizing in some countries Can all developing countries get there? 9 Age Structure Diagrams Age Structure 10 Number and proportion of people in each age group in a population Helps predict future population growth Shape is important Pyramid = fast growth Tapered bases = slow or negative growth 11 12 2 1/25/2011 Population Dynamics in Canada Future Population Growth Great Depression of 1930’s meant fewer children End of World War II, birth rate increased II bi Baby boomer generation moving toward their sixties Not all of Canada exhibits the same age structure What is meant by that? 13 14 Age Structure Diagram: Canada Stabilizing World Population Dispersal is not a solution Increase the death rate? Reduce the birth rate! th bi review some possible approaches and solutions in your readings 15 16 Scales & Cycles Nation Earth’s Environmental Systems World Earth’s vs. human scales of space and time vs 1 km 10 km 100 km 1 ,000 km 10,000 km Planetary Determined by prereproductive individuals Developed vs. developing countries Family Community variations in CO 2 climate plate tectonics ice ages deep ocean circulation hurricane soil erosion earthquake extinction speciation volcano seasons weather tornado Minute s Da ys Years M illennia A million ye ars A billion years This week Your lifetime All Human existence 18 Modified from: Graedel, T.E. and P.J. Crutzen, 1993: Atmospheric Change: An Earth System Perspective. W.H. Freeman, 3 1/25/2011 Our apparent inability to move outside our own perceptions of time and space is a barrier to a more ecologically sustainable society . . . The “take-home” messages “take Our own lifetimes are short in comparison to the “deep time” of global existence. What happens this week is usually of more interest than what might happen in a grandchild grandchild’s lifetime Most of us are more concerned about our own families and communities than we are about the rest of the world. This presents challenges to actually accomplishing long-term goals like sustainable development or dealing effectively with long-term issues like climate change Solutions to environmental problems are found in an understanding of systems and their rates of change However, events in our lives and the lives of our families families are simply more compelling than things that happen to other people, particularly if they live far away or are going to live some time in the future. And things that happen to us are certainly more compelling than things that happen to other species 19 20 20 1 km 10 km 100 km 1,000 k m 10,000 km Planetary Speaking of time. . . variations in CO 2 climate Earth is extremely old (4.5 billion years) plate tectonics ice ages deep ocean circulation hurricane soil erosion earthquake extinction speciation volcano seasons weather tornado Stephen J. Gould (Time’s Arrow) categorized categorized 4.5 billion years as “deep time” “Deep time is so difficult to comprehend, so outside ordinary experience, that it remains a major stumbling block to our understanding.” Minute s Da ys Years M illennia A million ye ars A billion years 21 22 The Long Now Foundation www.longnow.org/about/about.htm The Long Now Foundation hopes to provide counterpoint to today's "faster/cheaper" mind set and promote "slower/better" thinking. hope to creatively foster responsibility in the framework of the next 10,000 years. 23 4 ...
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