unit6 - Simulation Process of modeling reality to gain a...

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1 Unit 6: Simulation Simulation • Process of modeling reality to gain a better understanding of the phenomena or system being studied • Simulation versus the “real world” - More cost effective - Less dangerous environment -F a s t e r - More practical • Does not require mathematical models or computers Types of Simulation • Performance • Proof • Discovery Entertainmen • Entertainment • Training • Education • Prediction Simulation Process • Model development - Define the problem or question - Develop the conceptual model - Collect data - Build computer model • Model validation • Simulate and analyze output Simulation Process Model Development • Problem/ question definition Model Validation • Quantitative comparison Simulation and Analyses •DOE • Replication • Develop conceptual model • Collect data • Build computer model • Expert opinion • Data collection, storage, and organization • Analysis Monte Carlo Simulation • Model the output of a system by using input variables that could not be known exactly Random variables (those that are uncertain • Random variables (those that are uncertain and have a range of possible values) characterized by a probability distribution • Solution is a distribution of possible outcomes that can be characterized statistically
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2 Simple Monte Carlo Example Distribution of Charges Charges $ 20.00 $ 30.00 $ 40.00 $ 50.00 $ 30 20 10 Number of Patients (Frequency) 40 60.00 $ 70.00 $ 80.00 $ 90.00 $ 100.00 $ 110.00 $ 120.00 $ Total 360 Average 70.00 $ 50 60 50 10 20 30 40 0 10 20 30 $20.0 0 $ 40.0 $60.00 $80.0 1 00.00 20.00 Charges Number of Pati Simple Monte Carlo Example • Fifty percent of the clinic’s patients do not
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unit6 - Simulation Process of modeling reality to gain a...

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