Lecture 2 (2) - ECOS3008 LABOUR ECONOMICS Week 2: 7 March 1...

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1 ECOS3008 LABOUR ECONOMICS Week 2: 7 March
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2 last 2 slides of Week 1 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 19681972197619801984198819921996200020042008 August (%) LFP ER Source: R&W Table 4.2 updated 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 August UR
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3 Other Measures Of Unemployment 1. ABS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2. ABS TREND
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4 3 CES REGISTERED JOBSEEKERS (CES = Commonwealth Employment Service) 2 registered with CES for job assistance, AND unemployed at time of registration, and wanting full-time employment Other Measures Of Unemployment
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5 4. DSS RECIPIENTS OF NEWSTART (DSS = Department of Social Security) (pre 1993 = UB, 1993 to 1996 = JSA, 1996 onward = Newstart) Persons receiving Newstart Allowance must be registered with Centrelink, AND actively seeking work, AND $ amount is subject to (family) income test Other Measures Of Unemployment
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6 Comparison of Unemployment Measures 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1964 1975 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2007 (000s) ABS ABS(s) CES DSS
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7 Impact of Seasonal Adjustment, ABS Monthly Figures, 2000 500 600 700 800 Dec Mar Jun Sep (000s) Original Seasonally Adj.
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8 Comparing Unemployment Measures Who Counts? ABS Timing? ABS & DSS ‘current’ CES ‘historical’ Job search? ABS CES, DSS
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9 Differences in Unemployment Measures Income Tested? ABS DSS Other? ABS will miss a CES or DSS person with no ???? DSS will exclude an ABS person who fails ???
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10 LFPR and UR LFPR: rises if E , U or N rises if N slower than E and/or U UR: rises if U or E rises if E slower than U rises if E faster than U N U E U E LFPR + + + U E U UR + Based on Table 4.1 R&W
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11 Relationship between LFPR and UR LFPR, Labour Force Participation Rate UR, Unemployment Rate E, number of people employed U, number of people unemployed N, number of people not in the labour force “E + U + N” is constant at any point in time “E + U + N” grows steadily over time N U E U E LFPR + + + U E U UR +
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12 Changes in LFPR and UR? Changes in the unemployment rate: perception is that demand side dominates ie falls in UR are often interpreted as a sign of a booming job market and rises in UR as a sign of a deteriorating one is this perception right?
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13 falls in UR signal a booming job market? rises in UR signal a deteriorating one?
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Lecture 2 (2) - ECOS3008 LABOUR ECONOMICS Week 2: 7 March 1...

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