Psych Chapter 1 Outline

Psych Chapter 1 Outline - Overconfidence-Our every day...

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Yaunek Murray Period 1 Chapter 1 Notes Thinking Critically for Psychological Science The Limits of Intuition and Common Sense -Many people feel psychology is only common sense. -Advocates of intuitive management urge us to distrust statistical predictors. -In reality however our intuition and common sense can lead us astray. Did we know it all along? The Hindsight Bias. -Psychologists call it 20/20 hindsight vision when people figure something out after it has already happened. Drawing the bulls eye after the arrow strikes. -When a supposed finding and its opposite seem like common sense there is a problem. -Peoples errors in recollections and explanations show why we need psychological research. Common sense gives and after the fact explanation not a prediction.
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Unformatted text preview: Overconfidence-Our every day thinking is limited not only by our after the fact common sense but also by our tendency to be over confident.-Once people figure something out, hindsight makes it seem so obvious that they become over confident.-Peoples’ over confidence is shown even when predicting social behavior.-People are more confident than correct.-Overconfidence in political experts is hard to dislodge. The Scientific Attitude-No matter ho sensible or crazy-sounding an idea may seem the question is- when put to the test, can its predictions be confirmed?-Sometimes scientific inquiry refutes skeptics.-It requires a scientific attitude to sift reality from fantasy.-...
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