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Unformatted text preview: Overconfidence-Our every day thinking is limited not only by our after the fact common sense but also by our tendency to be over confident.-Once people figure something out, hindsight makes it seem so obvious that they become over confident.-Peoples over confidence is shown even when predicting social behavior.-People are more confident than correct.-Overconfidence in political experts is hard to dislodge. The Scientific Attitude-No matter ho sensible or crazy-sounding an idea may seem the question is- when put to the test, can its predictions be confirmed?-Sometimes scientific inquiry refutes skeptics.-It requires a scientific attitude to sift reality from fantasy.-...
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- Fall '08