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# Chapter_10 - Chapter 10 Introducing Probability BPS 5th Ed...

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BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 1 Chapter 10 Introducing Probability

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BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 2 Idea of Probability Probability is the science of chance behavior Chance behavior is unpredictable in the short run but has a regular and predictable pattern in the long run this is why we can use probability to gain useful results from random samples and randomized comparative experiments
BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 3 Randomness and Probability Random : individual outcomes are uncertain but there is a regular distribution of outcomes in a large number of repetitions Relative frequency (proportion of occurrences) of an outcome settles down to one value over the long run. That one value is then defined to be the probability of that outcome.

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BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 4 Relative-Frequency Probabilities Can be determined (or checked) by observing a long series of independent trials (empirical data) experience with many samples simulation (computers, random number tables)
BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 5 Relative-Frequency Probabilities Coin flipping:

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BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 6 Probability Models The sample space S of a random phenomenon is the set of all possible outcomes. An event is an outcome or a set of outcomes (subset of the sample space). A probability model is a mathematical description of long-run regularity consisting of a sample space S and a way of assigning probabilities to events.
BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10 7 Probability Model for Two Dice Random phenomenon: roll pair of fair dice. Sample space : Probabilities : each individual outcome has probability 1/36 (.0278) of occurring.

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BPS - 5th Ed. Chapter 10
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Chapter_10 - Chapter 10 Introducing Probability BPS 5th Ed...

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