PCM-Lecture17-Risk-Analysis

# PCM-Lecture17-Risk-Analysis - Project and Construction...

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Unformatted text preview: Project and Construction Management Project and Construction Management Lecture #17 Lecture #17 The Decision Tree Analysis The Decision Tree Analysis and and The Risk Analysis Matrix The Risk Analysis Matrix Luis Prieto-Portar 2010 Introduction to the Decision Tree Method. 1) The Definition of the Decision Tree Method. 2) The Decision Tree Notations and Relations. 3) A Decision Tree Example. Decision Tree is a risk analysis method based on probabilities and potential rofits and loss of several alternatives. It allows decision makers to decide profits and loss of several alternatives. It allows decision makers to decide on various project alternatives even before entering a bidding process. Decision Tree Definitions. The Decision Tree analysis is mainly concerned with the process of making decisions (Flanagan and Norman, 1993). The Decision Tree process is a set of techniques to guide decisions like long- term, strategic or short-term decisions under risky and uncertain conditions. The decision analysis may use, (1) decision matrices, (2) stochastic decision trees, (3) algorithms, (4) means-end chain, etc, to trace the consequences of both present and future courses of actions (McKim, 1990). Decision Tree Notation and Relations.Decision Tree Notation and Relations....
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## This note was uploaded on 08/29/2011 for the course CGN 4930 taught by Professor Prieto-portar during the Spring '11 term at FIU.

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PCM-Lecture17-Risk-Analysis - Project and Construction...

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