Trend-Holt Technique - and Forecast for Period 21 4 In D4...

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Holt's Technique for Trend Models Situation: Model has been determined by regression (low p-value for β 1 ) to have linear trend over 20 periods Required: Forecast for the next 4 periods (21-24) using Holt's technique using α = .2 to forecast the level; γ = .4 to forecast the trend. 1. Input initial Values 1. In D3 Enter =B3 2. In E3 Enter =B3-B2 3. In F4 Enter =D3+E3
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2. Enter Level and Trend Formulas for Period 3 3. Determine Levels, Trends and Forecasts for Periods 4-20
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Unformatted text preview: and Forecast for Period 21. 4. In D4 Enter =.2*B4 +.8*F4 α Value for Period 3 1-α Forecast for Period 3 5. In E4 Enter =.4*(D4-D3) +.6*E3 γ Difference in Levels 3 and 2 1-Trend Estimate for Period 2 6. Highlight D4:F4 Drag all to 7. Highlight F21 Drag to F21 4. Determine Forecasts for Periods 22-24 8. In F23 Enter =F22+ Previous Forecast Last Estimate for the Trend 9. Highlight F23...
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Trend-Holt Technique - and Forecast for Period 21 4 In D4...

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