Test One Notes - LectureNotes 18:24 ,planningforwaste,etc...

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Lecture Notes 18:24 Consider planning for space, planning for waste, etc.  Population consequences Human population is doubling every 40 to 46 years. Every hour, the world's population increases by more than 10,000 people. Africa is expanding the most Asia is shrinking, Europe is decreasing Most dense in Southern Asia, Central/West Africa, Eastern U.S. •http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html Based on past data & estimated growth rate Growth Rate How fast a given population grows •Population growth occurs when birth rate > death rate  G = birth rate - death rate •Factors affecting growth rate Life expectancy (The longer people live, the larger G will be) Family-planning method
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Religious or social values Economic development (more developed countries tend to have less kids) Nutrition, prenatal or child care Population grows exponentially N = N 0 e (G/100)t N = number of people N 0  = base population G = % of growth per year t = time Doubling Time – Time it takes for a population to double in size D = 70/G Difference between Growth Rate and Absolute Population 1990-1991                      1991-1992 G 1 = 2                              G 2 = 1 N 0 = 100                          N 0 = 102         One year later N= 102 (100+2)              N= 103.2 (102+1.02)
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Carrying Capacity of the Earth? Global average population density: 83 people per square mile (32 people/square kilometer) Arable land surface: 167 people/square kilometer Sustainable world population (carrying capacity): 7-100 billion people o Different standards of good living conditions o Efficiency of our agriculture Uneven distribution of people and resources Developed countries o US, Canada, Japan, Western Europe, Commonwealth of Independent  States, Australia, New Zealand o 22% of world population o 88% of natural resources o 73% of energy o 85% of the world’s wealth o Create most of the pollution and waste Developing countries o The rest of the world o 78% of the population o 12% of natural resources o 27% of energy
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o 15% of the wealth o striving to increase standards of living Pessimistic Assumption: o Exponential growth o Fixed land (therefore food) Will run out of resources in < 100 years Will cause collapse of our economy Either limit the population and pollution or economy collapse Large impact on government policy Optimistic (Simon and Kahn) Assumption o continued technological development Trends are improving o world supported 1 billion, now 6 billion o Progress in agriculture, sanitation, medicine
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