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14_Population_consump2011

14_Population_consump2011 - Population v consumption Is it...

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Click to edit Master subtitle style Population v. consumption: Is it the numbers or the stuff?
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Ehrlich/Simon debate Paul Ehrlich The Population Bomb (1968) Neo-Malthusian Thomas Malthus, An Essay on the Principle of Population (1798) http://news-service.stanford.edu/news/2007/march7/gifs/ethical_ehrlich.jpg http://www.blupete.com/Literature/Biographies/Philosophy/Portraits/malthus.gif
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Julian Simon Neo-Condorcet Economics of Population Growth (1977) The Ultimate Resource (1981) http://www.juliansimon.com/images/jsimon.gif
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Where did this debate come from? Global demographic history “Doubling time” Year (C.E.) Population Doubling time 1650 500 million 1850 1 billion 200 years 1930 2 billion 80 years 1950 2.5 billion 1985 5 billion 35 years 2010 6.8 billion
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1804 – 1927 (123 years) to reach 2 billion 1927 – 1960 (33 years) to reach 3 billion 1960 – 1974 (14 years) to reach 4 billion 1974 – 1987 (13 years) to reach 5 billion 1987 – 1999 (12 years) to reach 6 billion
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“J-curve” Growth rate Fertility rate http://www.biologycorner.com/resources/J_curve.gif
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