Chapter 3 MGT

Chapter 3 MGT - Chapter3 Terms Error: difference between...

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Chapter 3 Terms Error: difference between the actual value and the value that was predicted for a given period Mean absolute deviation: the average absolute forecast error Mean squared error: the average of squared forecast errors. Mean absolute percent error: the average absolute percent error. Judgmental forecasts: forecasts that use subjective inputs such as opinions from consumer surveys, sales staff, managers, executive, and experts. Time-series forecasts: forecasts that project patterns identified in recent time-series observations Associative Model: forecasting technique that uses explanatory variables to predict future demand Delphi model: an iterative process in which managers and staff complete a series of questionnaire, each developed from the previous one, to achieve a consensus forecast. Time series: a time-ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals. Trend: a long-term upward or downward movement in data. Seasonality: short-term regular variations related to the calendar or time of day Cycle: wavelike variations lasting more than one year Irregular variation: caused by unusual circumstances, not reflective of typical behavior. Random variations: residual variations after all other behaviors are accounted for. Naïve forecast: a forecast for any period that equals the previous period’s actual value. Moving average: technique that averages a number of recent actual values,
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This note was uploaded on 09/02/2011 for the course MGT 3305 taught by Professor Reed during the Spring '08 term at Baylor.

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Chapter 3 MGT - Chapter3 Terms Error: difference between...

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