15%20Aggregate%20Supply%20and%20the%20Phillips%20Curve

15%20Aggregate%20Supply%20and%20the%20Phillips%20Curve -...

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1 15-1 The Phillips Curve and Aggregate Supply 15-2 Agenda 1. The Phillips Curve 2. The Aggregate Supply Curve 15-3 The Phillips Curve The Phillips curve is the inverse relationship between inflation and unemployment . 1. When unemployment is unusually low, the demand for labor will exceed the supply of labor and wages will rise more quickly. 2. Because wages are a major input into total costs, more rapidly rising wages leads to higher inflation. 15-4 The Phillips Curve The Phillips curve is given by: –w h e r e : 1. = inflation, 2. U = the unemployment rate, and 3. = the sensitivity of to changes in U. π = - ω
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2 15-5 The Phillips Curve 15-6 The Phillips Curve The Phillips curve also implies an inverse relationship between: 1. Nominal wages and 2. Unemployment. 15-7 The Phillips Curve A major flaw in the original Phillips curve analysis was that it failed to distinguish between nominal wages and real wages. 1. Labor market incentives for working and hiring are determined by real, not nominal, wages. 2. If workers and businesses expect inflation to increase, they will also adjust nominal wages higher so that the real wage does not fall. 15-8 The Phillips Curve This suggests there is a positive one-for-one relationship between: 1. Wages and inflation, and 2. Expected inflation .
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3 15-9 The Phillips Curve In the long-run , when all wages and prices are completely flexible, unemployment would be at the natural rate of unemployment, U N . This is also called the full-employment level of unemployment. This is the unemployment rate consistent with the economy’s long-run steady state. 15-10 The Phillips Curve Incorporating these changes, the Phillips Curve becomes the expectations-augmented Phillips curve , which is given by: i.e., inflation is: 1. Positively related to expected inflation , and 2. Inversely related to the unemployment gap, U - U N . π
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This note was uploaded on 09/05/2011 for the course ECON 100B taught by Professor Wood during the Spring '08 term at University of California, Berkeley.

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15%20Aggregate%20Supply%20and%20the%20Phillips%20Curve -...

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