149 final guide

149 final guide - 1)ProspectiveVsRetrospective Voting...

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1) Prospective Vs Retrospective  Voting What is it? Two opposite theories on voting behavior. Prospective voting means basing  voting decisions by speculating on future conditions (economic /  political), while retrospective voting is basing decisions on how a  politician / party has voted / acted in the past. Prospective: What are the main features of them? Supporters  of Prospective voting argue voters should logically base their vote for  the current election on how they expect conditions to be in the future.  Instead  of offering only the ratification  or rejection of the  incumbent party, the  prospective model allows voters to make a choice  between competing parties Retrospective: What are the main features? If conditions have improved voters support the incumbent party/politician and  vice versa. This is a possible explanation as to why people choose to vote for  certain candidates in an election. The theory states that people consider the  state of the economy, how well their personal finances have been doing,  and how happy generally they have been with the person and political  party that has been in power, and then vote to either continue on that  path, or for another political party or rival candidate if they see the  economy doing poorly.  Retrospective voting is also strongly tied to the performance of the economy under the incumbent party, especially in the last 6-9 months before the election  This trend, with relation to an economic calculus  is very strong for presidential elections, and then loses relevance as  the races get closer and closer to home. This trend may be a result of  issue ownership – local politicians get less credit and blame for the  state of the economy because they have a smaller role in government.  Other ways of thinking about retrospective voting  could be to do with scandal, a very personal sense of voting against  something that has previously happened in office, or partisan tides, the  idea that candidates do better when they are of a certain political  party that voters think has an advantage in a certain year. 
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Picture 14 We  can use the tool of retrospective voting to try and understand more  thoroughly the dynamics of electoral competition in California, and more  specifically, how factors like party, incumbency, and the state of the  economy affect voter behavior and ultimately, electoral outcomes 2)     Tithing:       It     has to do with centralizing money. Wilie Brown had interest groups give  him money and he distributed it to supporters.  3. FEC-   Federal Election Committee- independent regulatory agency that was 
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This note was uploaded on 09/07/2011 for the course POLI SCI 149 taught by Professor Staff during the Spring '11 term at UCLA.

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149 final guide - 1)ProspectiveVsRetrospective Voting...

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