DS 412 SP 05 VER B

DS 412 SP 05 VER B -...

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Unformatted text preview: --:-1-I.-'="""‘ 1. ' '. _ . _ _ __ _ aayis soid .. .m the chal 260 theft: is' up cost of unsatisfied demand. D3.in demand for . I. _ . beeffiaay'be 60, '613'01'62' pomsffiflijrfipccfifie pinbabilifics of0.3, 0.5, and 0.2. The-Shop has to . -'dci:id¢ how much beeftd purchas'fi exié'ry mOming.- ' - _ L _ I down the states_'t_)fna_tu'r_c_. . P . _ ' go! 3 L} ' " "" ~ ' ' " (99..- m. m m. . . -. . - . “E I. a}; me J.S_'_1_Li.-.fi_ Eh; ' eSped‘Lfy'the depision altcm_atives.- - L“ . __ .' ..‘ I -_ I T #__.____ '3'55: ‘ ; :_ .f. - I. 3S €5.41 boa; Marat—43%? I 311’. War. ‘ .. _ -. . 3. _ _. . .- I —. _. - 'c. '.:S;:tup_t__}1épéiyoff(prpfit) table, shofing the statcs’ofpamrc,-decision altemgfivcs, {aroma-and .- ' 'vaébah.fl.ifi¢s~ ' ' (gm) _ ram-2,. . ' N 7 -- .éax'ca —._.zé0-x'-3.$a — MEI—:35 t - soc-3.5, ~69 x3.so____4_,{._1‘ 3 WW: - go {9.5}; -« £23" 1 ' ' Q do a: f. r 4 I ;<z§,’£9: ,wlg' - * ' / ' _ . ' ' rat->4: ('4‘.- ca I x 3:37.; xiii-.5- . . .- - I I 1,“ Ikélra'gg v’<{F/r:/.r fur). 40): q... —- {9.2 X3475“: -/_.___-;3 (1. Compute the expected values offlncprofits. What is the best decision? '6" “'6 F @531 Kay-'9' é." "*7, I , '_ . I _ x“ "" 5.? r134], mfg—F. . ~' _ 1:) m1; __"r‘ 14-51;.«1, S +— Mina ._ Evjfic’av ‘— (#2755) "F (7%.”5) S '_ 7“ - * 2. , (30.p0ifit's) Thgmfingggr ‘ofUnjcorpManufacmring needs to decidawhether to purchase 1 or 2 milling " at the pressn'f time; Demandfof gears may be‘ 106; (probability of 0.4) or high (ptobability of 036),»; rIHZ.,xfiaphi1;‘és72re purchased; prjqfiis guesexpcctred'té‘fie'fi 60,000 if demand is low, and $240,000 high; If 1,rm¢m¢.fi'§mgms¢¢ profit is likely to be $170,000 if demand is low. If . id be high the managér hasthr’e'e‘ options; Do nothing (profit of $170,000); ~ , x '- Sgibgonuacmrbfi‘epf .$210,000); a; 51 sggpnd, machine at that am (profit of $220,000). ‘ ‘ Ides a dééi’sibfifiéé fbrihis lébélfiqurhpletely,’ Sh0wing‘decision alternatives, states. '7 of? pIQBafiilifiééaind'fiaYoffs."s~ 7 ; W, waif?!” . . 3% ‘ "aeéisi§n(s) shamame manager‘mske? €93¢4'9f‘99e.¥?af{~na;ta’ forltfié ’iia‘st th 'ye‘m is p’tpvided b¢low. ; .~ . 't‘he' lg9§a§°fiflf§°tfi¥9f *5“:me r» msno. ‘ .res'» $1M; a: ,wj‘: 3+,7s-o ., 4 , 15,35 ., *. . a .‘1 1)’7‘5‘ Z {:3 ' ’ .3996”. . ._ L0 #0. .‘ :‘7 9'57f‘."‘?5 :; Leg 1 . ‘ 69-h. fsfiéiéfsi.ciixart¢n atz'tZHe,,Pinehi1-Q¢fiSld.Rbsbrtghas 33:03me paw; with 5 .0 : foréathfiuarterpfyearl 3) J5 H) 4r750’r'”7750.= Soot) ‘ a". _ ~ . *3 fit}, «9— ~' 34/ 08412 ‘ Day ESAb'\JOIQLn-Orho-A ESIo’ai-g each b 031» -+ 923 Sales ‘ 2124 2163 " 2011 2098~ "2205; ~ 2159/ '~12¢82; '~22081. ‘21705 ‘2144" .i“2168a‘~ . 214a., 23:12- . 2042¢7 .ZV ‘ '2'135115 ' ; 2094: : .‘i‘2193.; ' - - 2126‘1 ~~ “I 2157- Midterrn‘Exam 1 IWA ,h1= ~# .# E# 7x.2156_ 4 NhA NhA ' NIIA.’ “2148 2152 ‘2 2164 22155 . MA. hl=8 ’ #NhA #NHA #qu #NhA #Nhg; '#Nfl% #NHX: 2151 . 2154 2150‘ .2151'1' 72144 22138 7 2155‘ '2435 2131 . 2125 2140 ‘2135 Prof. Uday ' SES . Alpha=0?1' Alpha-=04 . #NhA 2.1.21.- . 2126 ‘ 2134 r 2136 :’ a 2131~; jsEs' ‘ #NHA‘ 2124.i 2133, 21423. 2142 52135 2T39 21367. .2138 ' ' 2124 2114 . .2133._ 2162' ‘2161; 2129 2161 : 2164 2156 2122 2140 ' 2144 2145' 2135' 2135,’ 2131 2137~ ~.'2136'; 213§>‘ "'2131 2169~ . 2118 2125 2113 2145 . 213? 7 2145 521 .1 (‘2?) $1) 4. ‘ (15 points) Refer to your take home exam. Use the computer output provided to answer the follOwing ,queétions. . - ' a.’ Based on the forecasu or days 13 through 16, compute V . .MSE for Moving Averages withN = 4. /’ ‘ .- 5. v ( pointslA tregrreesjonis gun annual sales of cameras 3;; the“ flependenf variable Y year he ’the ~ ‘ ‘ '~ ‘ifidepend‘emarjafile x. e The data coinpfises me years 1994 through 2004, WithX é 1 fog 1994. The - ; teg‘resgionjéq‘mianiéi,Y-—— 46000+9‘ . . . j .2 :a; Whetisthetrendperyear? 445-. ‘3'; x-\ 7.5;: mg): ‘ L -.W 4’ Hadiim Emu“, 'os * 60x (6 43-5) £9 8A9? 1’4 EV: 2.10K ® EV: /6ox0~4+l¢ox‘o~é: 263k (9 EV = f7oxo.¢.+ Zzo xo~6: 200 /<‘ 4. 95;. I 1 3 4 7w 2 MW : (93m+¢éw+8m+z+3w)/4L' _= 4750 Hm @JL ¥aOA (l»73+l~ 75,)[25 /-97 ’ @‘76+0-97)/2_=o-97 Qan +0-l'D/2. :. 0“ /7. @qu-f-O'QD/J—s O-q/ 354/244 . .a. PE! 5.; El w~ 5:1“ l—I 8900 ‘ [.7g (—2. 4300 0-96 l-3 70° 04/6 1-4- I+Ioo 0.9, ‘.2", 9.300 ['74, 2'1?“ #600 0,77 2’3 8'“ ' 0-H 2—4/- 4—300 0.q/ 5- = #75’0—45‘070: 250 ~ W/Wfiszv—aux3: 47504—2570 =5‘oo"o. 7023.2.M; ah.}:5000></-‘?7; 9850 W .____'-—'_‘ [3 1+ _' :5“ Ho (bug; Smxo-i7; 830 SW CN:LI-) zllz— 7—133 = ~11 2.12.6- lug-'11:); b ' 2.042— Zlélf=—U-7- mas?— 2131= 3 0A}; SMX0»97; 4850 5 Q14: 5mXo~9/; EWVCN=§9 2m.— 2’44— = -3 :2. ‘222é_ 2 2092— 2)56 : ~HLI- 2135- 2:35“: O 0.. M35 =.G1!)L+Clofi)l+(-129:(3)L: 6383.75 5» M35: 1+ 4. 63;)1+C99)31r(—Hq)1+(0)z : 54-4} _ ‘ 4550' ...
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DS 412 SP 05 VER B -...

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