Exam2_FC3 - The flashcards are formatted for printing...

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2 nd Quarter Four
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Sum of seasonal variations (S value). GM’s strongest season because of tax rebates.
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4 th Quarter 3 rd Quarter
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GM’s weakest season because they stop production on that year’s cars. GM’s second strongest season.
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Exponential Smoothing 3 rd Quarter
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GM’s third strongest season. Can only forecast one time period in advance; very short.
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F T Y T
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The current data point for time period T for exponential smoothing. Forecasted data point for time period T for exponential smoothing; historical data.
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Alpha; 1 – Alpha Alpha
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Represents the smoothing rate for exponential smoothing; probability from zero to one. For exponential smoothing, the weight you apply to the current data point is ____ while the weight you apply to the previous data point is ____.
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Delphi Method Autoregressive Models
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The x variable is a previous value of the response variable. Forecasting method that uses no historical data.
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Seasonal Component Irregular Component
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Short-term variation that is random and can not be modeled mathematically.
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