Exam1 - FC4 - The flashcards are formatted for printing....

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Seasonal Index Seasonal Index
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For each quarter in each year, divide the actual quarterly demand by the quarterly demand if distributed evenly. Gives a measure of how each quarter’s demand compared to a uniform split.
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Total Annual Forecast 1
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The average value of all the seasonal indexes. Equal to the sum of the quarterly forecasts for a particular year.
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Forecast Error Seasonal Forecast
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The data of each quarter could be treated as a time series. A measure of how accurate our forecast was in a given time period.
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Mean Forecast Error (MFE) Actual Demand – Forecast
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Forecast error equation: The average value of forecast values over time.
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Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) Mean Forecast Error (MFE)
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Not revealing because positive and negative values cancel themselves out, creating a false sense of security. Look at the absolute value of the forecast error to measure the size of the deviation regardless of sign, eliminating the problem of positive errors canceling out negative errors.
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Mean Squared Error (MSE) Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD)
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Accumulate absolute deviations over time
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This note was uploaded on 09/08/2011 for the course MAN 3520 taught by Professor Stephengoodman during the Spring '10 term at University of Central Florida.

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Exam1 - FC4 - The flashcards are formatted for printing....

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