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FORECASTING 1.  A) De-seasonalized Sales       August  825.27 September  850.68 October  875 November 900.92 B) Using the Naïve Trend method      2005 December  925.82 C) F(Dec 2005)= 1120.24 2.  A)   Period Sales Mov.  Avg Exp.  Smooth MA  Errors Exp. Errors 2001 320 -------- 291.0 2002 340 303.33 293.9 36.67 46.1 2003 330 320 298.51 10 31.49 2004 330 301.66 ------- --------- B) Moving Avg MAD = 23.35 Exp. Sm. MAD = 38.795 C) Based on the MAD calculations, the Moving Average has the lowest MAD  and is the best method for forecasting. 3.  A) (X) grams of protein per serving B) (Y) grams of fat per serving C) X = 3.30 D) Based on the coefficient, the model is a good indicator of predicting grams of  fat per serving. 4.  A) The independent variable is: the annual number of houses sold (X) 1

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B) The dependent variable is: the annual number of lawn chairs (Y)

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Unformatted text preview: C) Y= 203 + .07(X) D) 679 lawn chairs sold E) Based on the correlation (.8968), this model is a good fit. 2 CAPACITY PLANNING 1. A) 100 crepes B) 0 crepes C) Choose to RENT. The profit is \$750 D) Go down by 150 crepes to 200 crepes 2. A) Approximately 24 rooms B) Approximately 35 rooms C) \$580 D) \$440 E) Inn A since it makes more profit. DECISION THEORY 1. EV(own shop)=[0.3*250*(3.5-1.5)+0.5*500*(3.5-1.5)+0.2*700*(3.5-1.5)]-500=430 EV (vendor)=[0.3*250*(3.5-1.5)]/2+[0.5*500*(3.5-1.5)]/2+[0.2*700*(3.5-1.5)]/2=465-Best 2. A) Action 1 9 is the best worst B) Action 2 12 is the best C) Action 2 Average Pay-Off 10 is better D) Action 2 Best worst regret is 2 3 4...
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