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# In banburismus prh m of called were used irectly

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Unformatted text preview: t the after all weight evidence is0)eq pothesis 1) 1979). In Banburismus, Pr(h |m) of called were used irectly perceptible htom) ) andlogarithmsare base 10 the posterior human called the prior probabilities and intuition”; Good, 1979). describ d, posterior prob where and Pr(h1 are Pr(h0) Pr( 0| 1 robabilities and describe the probability of each hyh instructed the codebreaking team when to stop working othesison oneall the evidence has been sampled, and after pair of ciphers and turn their attention to another. e r( Background: Banburismus of the and ). h0) and Pr(h1) it predictedthe prior probabilitiesdecision, as Second, are called the accuracy at Bletchley Park escribefollows. By Bayes’ problem weight of evidence can the probability of theorem, the each hypothesis before any Formalize the vidence isrelated to severalexample, there is an equal be sampled. If, for other probabilities: 1 rior probability of either hypothesis (which was the : Pr(h1| in Pr(h1) ssumption madem) Banburismus), then theof evidence, (2) weight of log weight log Pr(h0| to Pr(h0) vidence is equalm) the logarithm of the ratio of the ) osterior probabilities. In this case, for a given weight ifwhere knowledge is equal 1|for the two hypothesis prior Pr(h0|m) and Pr(h m) are called the posterior f evidence (e.g., the stopping point in Banburismus): probabilities and describe the probability of each hypothesis |m) all the evidence has been sampled, and after Pr(h1 eight of evidence B (3) log h0) and Pr(h1)ware called the prior probabilities and , Pr( Pr(h |m) 0 describe the probability of each hypothesis before any here Bevidence is sampled. If, for example, there is an equal is a constant that represents the barrier height h1 is1 true two of How much the hypotheses f favor prior .probabilitymutually exclusive evidence favors theover h0 either hypothesis (which was h1 of h For 1 Pr( 1|m) in Banburismus), then 1 r(h0|m)assumptionhmadeor, equivalently, Pr(h0) the weight of s(h )), and assuming the to the logarithm of the ratio of the evidence is equal weight of evidenc...
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