Lecture Notes - 10-13-Wednesday-Evaluating Nondeductive Arguments

Lecture Notes - 10-13-Wednesday-Evaluating Nondeductive Arguments

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Lecture Notes – 10/13/2010 – Wednesday Evaluating Non-Deductive Arguments  I. Induction a. Strength and Weakness i. Related to: 1. Sample size 2. Biasness of sample II. Inference to the Best Explanation (IBE) a. Informal i. Surprise Principle: If the hypothesis is true, would we be  more  or  less  surprised at the observational outcome than if any other  hypothesis is true? ii. Example: 1. O (observation): Guy on quad carrying philosophy books a. H1 (hypothesis 1): engineering major b. H2: philosophy major i. If H1, would you be surprised at O? 1. yes ii. If H2, would you be surprised at O? 1. No
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iii. Thus, H2 is a better explanation than H1 c. What if: H3: philosophy book salesman i. If H3, would you be surprised at O? ii. Thus, H2 = H3 1. This is known as: predictive equivalence a. IBE is subject to this on occasion b. Only-Game-In-Town Fallacy i. Fallacious use of IBE 1. Example: While at a cabin in the forest …
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Lecture Notes - 10-13-Wednesday-Evaluating Nondeductive Arguments

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