Lecture notes 10-11-10

# Lecture notes 10-11-10 - Lecture notes 10-11-10 Heres an...

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Lecture notes 10-11-10 Here’s an inductive argument: (T = time X = place) At T 1 and X 1 , the observed raven was black At T 2 and X 2 , the observed raven was black At T 3 and X 3 , the observed raven was black …and so on… Therefore, all ravens are black This argument is INVALID. But it can still be a good argument (that is, our observations can serve as strong evidence for the conclusion) if we observe a lot of ravens. Inductive arguments are evaluated in terms of strength/weakness, not in terms of validity/invalidity To determine the strength of an inductive argument, we must evaluate two things: (1) Sample size, and (2) bias. Consider an inductive argument for the law F=MA. We can draw one of three conclusions about F=MA: (1) It’s a true law of nature (2) It’s a coincidence (3) There’s some trick (on the part of the person giving us the argument) To get an idea of which option is best, we need to have a large, non-biased sample (say, one million good tests of F=MA). But even if we perform a million good

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## This note was uploaded on 09/14/2011 for the course PHIL 1200 taught by Professor Davey during the Fall '08 term at Missouri (Mizzou).

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Lecture notes 10-11-10 - Lecture notes 10-11-10 Heres an...

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