LEC05 Total prob & indep NEW

# LEC05 Total prob & indep NEW - Total Probability Rule...

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Total Probability Rule Weighted Average: There are two suppliers A and B. A supplies 60% of parts awith fraction defective .02. B supplies 40% of parts with fraction defective .05. Find the fraction of defective parts.

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2 Suppliers with Notation There are two suppliers A and B. A supplies 60% of parts awith fraction defective .02. B supplies 40% of parts with fraction defective .05. Find the fraction of defective parts. Given: event D = part is defective event A= part comes from A P(A) =.6 P(D/A)=.02 event B = part comes from B P(B) =.4 P(D/B)=.05 2
2 Suppliers With Notation Events A and B are exhaustive and mutually exclusive Apply Total Probability Rule P D P D A P A P D B P B ( ) ( / ) ( ) ( / ) ( ) = + =(.02)(.6) + (.05)(.4) 3

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Statement of Total Probability Rule For any events A and B P A P A B P A B ( ) ( ) ( ' ) = + = + P A B P B P A B P B ( / ) ( ) ( / ') ( ') where B and B' are exhaustive & mutually exclusive P A P A B P B P A B P B
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## This note was uploaded on 02/27/2011 for the course ECO 0031829 taught by Professor Na during the Spring '09 term at Rider.

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LEC05 Total prob & indep NEW - Total Probability Rule...

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