problem set 4 solutions

problem set 4 solutions - Econ 330 Prof Sydnor Spring 2010...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–2. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Prof Sydnor Spring 2010 Problem Set 4 Solutions 1. For each of the following findings, carefully explain (i) why it reflects a statistical mistake; and (ii) how it might be explained by the representativeness heuristic. a) Subjects in a survey were given the following: “Suppose Bjorn Borg reaches the Wimbledon finals in 1981. Please rank the following outcomes from most to least likely, with 1 being the most likely and 4 being the least likely.” (1.7) Borg will win the match. (2.7) Borg will lose the first set. (3.5) Borg will win the first set but lose the match. (2.2) Borg will lose the first set but win the match. Average rankings are in parentheses. [Note: when answering this one, let’s ignore the fact that the wording here is a little ambiguous, just as it was for the Linda example in class. Ideally we’d like to check these results by running a “between sample” test where we drop out some options, but don’t worry about that here. That said, if you don’t know what I’m running on about here, you should figure it out or come ask me. Ok, I’ll stop now…] This is just like the “Linda-the-feminist-bank-teller” example from class. Notice that Borg will lose the first set but win the match (option D) is a subset of Borg will lose the first set (option B). So the likelihood of B must be higher. However, people rank D as more likely. In terms of representativeness, there is no really tight definition here, but it is probably that “Borg will lose the first set but win the match” sounds a lot more like what you expect to happen when Borg plays, whereas the shorter “Borg will lose the first set” doesn’t quite sound like Borg (since it doesn’t mention winning). Subjects may be thinking “Borg wins – that’s what he does,” and statement D is more representative of the idea of Borg winning than statement B. b) Subjects were given the following information: “All families with six children in a city were surveyed. In 72 families the exact order of birth of boys (B) and girls (G) was GBGBBG.” They were then asked to estimate the number of families in the survey in which the exact order of birth was BGBBBB. In the subject pool, the median estimate was 30 families with the BGBBBB order. If each new-born has a 50-50 chance of being a boy or a girl, then
Background image of page 1

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
Image of page 2
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

This note was uploaded on 09/18/2011 for the course ECON 330 taught by Professor Sydnor during the Spring '11 term at Case Western.

Page1 / 4

problem set 4 solutions - Econ 330 Prof Sydnor Spring 2010...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 2. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online