GEOG 1001Jan29

GEOG 1001Jan29 - Two 20 th century warming episodes...

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GEOG 1001 Jan.29 Climate Change 101 Fact #1 It’s complicated Many factors can influence climate conditions Some are natural o Solar energy o Continental vs. oceanic influences -Ocean- temp. Stays about the same -Continental- big extremes Others are manmade, or “anthropogenic” o Land cover changes Fact #2 Short term variations can obscure long-term changes SO how do we analyze climate? Step 1: observe current and historical conditions Step 2: figure out why those conditions exist Step 3: predict how those conditions might change Step 4: decide what (if anything) to do about it #la: historical climate conditions Last glacial maximum ended ~ 15,000 years ago Ice extent during the last glacial maximum (~18,000 years ago) Since then we have warmed up BUT With some smaller-scale variations along the way #1b: current climate conditions
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Unformatted text preview: Two 20 th century warming episodes Separated by a ~20 year period with no trend Warming since~ 1970 is most pronounced #2: why is it getting warmer? Is it natural? Yes relationship between getting warmer in ocean and land Is it anthropogenic? Is it both? Yes its both. Natural and human signal The anthropogenic signal likely comes from an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) E.g., CO 2 , CH 4 , NO x #3: what is likely to happen? Global circulation models predict climate changes over next 50-100 years Based on likely #4 what if anything should be done Global efforts to curb GHG emissions Rio (1992)- U.N. Convention on Climate Change Kyoto (1997)- Kyoto Protocol -- not a success Copenhagen (2009) Copenhagen Accord -- weak...
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GEOG 1001Jan29 - Two 20 th century warming episodes...

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