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MIE360 20 Comparing Multiple Alternatives

MIE360 20 Comparing Multiple Alternatives - MIE360 Computer...

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MIE360 Computer Modeling and Simulation Lecture Notes Daniel Frances © 2010 1 Lecture 20 – Comparing Multiple Alternatives So far we have only learned how to compare simulation outputs from two alternatives. We used both the paired-t and Welch’s Confidence Intervals, and the notion of kicking zero out of the interval to be able to make definitive statements about the relative merit of TWO alternatives. Suppose that our performance measure is average waiting time, that we computed four average waiting w A , w B , w C and w D corresponding to scenarios:. A, B, C and D, and that w A is the smallest average waiting time. We want to be able to make a composite statement such as “w A < w B ” and “w A < w C ” and “w A < w D with 95% confidence. How? Suppose that after performing the paired-t and Welch’s method I was 95% confident of EACH of the three statements. How sure would I be that they are all true? (Can’t use .95 3 because probabilities may not be independent)
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