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Exam
OM 301–001
Fall 2009
Final Exam
(12/16/09)
This exam consists of 35 multiplechoice questions, each of which is worth 3
points.
The total score is 105 points, including 5 extracredit points.
Work
individually and mark all answers on your Scantron answer sheet.
You have to
turn in your Scantron along with this problem set at the end of exam. Please have
your name on both.
The University Honor Code is strictly enforced.
Student Name:
Student ID:
G
1.
The following table shows a ski shop’ forecasted and actual demands of a certain snowboard
model in the past five weeks (with Week 1 representing 5 weeks ago and Week 5 being last
week).
What is the mean absolute percentage error of the existing forecasts (rounded to the
hundredth of a percent)?
A)
33.90%
B)
35.00%
C)
35.09%
D)
35.56%
E)
none of the above
Week
1
2
3
4
5
Forecasted Demand (units)
10
8
15
10
16
Actual Demand (units)
9
12
9
15
12
2.
Based on the data given in Question 1, please calculate the tracking signals over the past five
weeks.
What is the tracking signal (rounded to the hundredth of an MAD) in Week 5?
A)
– 5.00
B)
– 0.50
C)
0.50
D)
5.00
E)
none of the above
3.
Based on the data given in Question 1, what is this week’s forecasted demand (rounded to
whole units) using an exponential smoothing model with a smoothing constant of 0.8?
A)
9 units
B)
11 units
C)
13 units
D)
15 units
E)
none of the above
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OM 301–001
Fall 2009
4.
Based on the data given in Question 1, what is this week’s forecasted demand (rounded to
whole units) using a twoweek moving average model?
A)
9 units
B)
11 units
C)
13 units
D)
14 units
E)
none of the above
5.
Which is the MOST appropriate statement to argue that the exponential smoothing model
with
α
= 0.8 is better than the 2week moving average model for the data in Question 1?
A)
the data appear to be seasonal
B)
the data appear to be trended upward
C)
the exponential smoothing model requires fewer data
D)
the exponential smoothing model provides smoother forecasts
E)
the exponential smoothing model is easier to calculate
6.
The operations manager in Question 1 is investigating another forecasting model, which
gives the following tracking signals.
Which of the following statements is appropriate?
A)
the new forecasting method has a consistent tendency of overforecasting
B)
the new forecasting method has a consistent tendency of underforecasting
C)
the new forecasting method is capable of providing highly accurate forecasts
D)
all of the above
E)
none of the above
Day
1
2
3
4
5
Tracking Signal
1.60
0.50
– 1.67
– 2.75
– 4.40
7.
Another forecasting model for Question 1 yields ME = – 0.2, MAD = 6.4, MSE = 135, MPE
= 0.08% and MAPE = 66.67%.
Which of the followings is the MOST appropriate
statement?
A)
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This note was uploaded on 09/21/2011 for the course OM 301 taught by Professor Naor during the Fall '09 term at George Mason.
 Fall '09
 Naor

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