RayFairForecast2010C

RayFairForecast2010C - Presidential and Congressional...

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Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations: November 2010 Update Ray C. Fair November 11, 2010 Abstract The three vote-share equations in Fair (2009) are updated using data avail- able as of November 3, 2010. The equations are reestimated incorporating the new data, and forecasts of the 2012 presidential and House elections are made. 1 Introduction Three vote-share equations are estimated in Fair (2009)—presidential, on-term House, and mid-term House. These equations are updated in this paper using data available as of November 3, 2010. The sample period is 1916–2008 for the first two equations and 1918–2010 for the third. No specification changes have been made; the equations are simply reestimated using one more observation. The history of the equations is briefly discussed in Section 2; the data are discussed in Section 3; the estimates are presented in Section 4; a comparison Cowles Foundation and International Center for Finance, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8281. Voice: 203-432-3715; Fax: 203-432-6167; email: ray.fair@yale.edu; website: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu.
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of ex ante and ex post forecasts is made in Section 5; and forecasts for the 2012 presidential and on-term House elections are presented in Section 6. Appendix A contains a complete description of how the data were collected and a listing of all the data. The results in this paper can be duplicated using these data if desired. 2 History of the Equations The presidential vote equation was first presented in Fair (1978). The previous updates of this equation are in Fair (1982, 1988, 1990, 1996a, 1998, 2002a, 2006). The specification of the equation has not been changed since changes following the 1992 election. The easiest paper to read regarding the changes that were made to the equation between the original specification and the specification after the 1992 election is Fair (1996b). A non technical discussion is in Fair (2002b). The on-term and mid-term House equations were first presented in Fair (2009). The specification of these two equations has also not been changed for this update. Counting the original presidential vote paper and the seven updates, there are eight estimated equations, one before each of the elections between 1980 through 2008. In Section 5 I have examined eight ex ante forecasts. Each forecast uses the relevant estimated equation and the economic data that existed at the time of the election. These forecasts are compared to ex post forecasts using the currently estimated equation and the latest revised economic data. This gives one a sense, among other things, of how important the specification changes after the 1992 election were. 2
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3 The Updated Data The National Income and Product data available as of October 29, 2010, from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) have been used. Data prior to 1929 have been obtained, as before, from Balke and Gordon (1986). The appendix discusses the splicing of the Balke and Gordon data to the BEA data.
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This note was uploaded on 09/21/2011 for the course ECON 33974 taught by Professor Barbaraross during the Spring '09 term at Hawaii.

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RayFairForecast2010C - Presidential and Congressional...

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