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# Lecture 5 fall 2011 - Welcome to the Jungle Click to edit Master subtitle style http www.ebaumsworld.com/audio/play/820440 Outline Definitions of

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Click to edit Master subtitle style 9/23/11 Welcome to the Jungle! http:// www.ebaumsworld.com/audio/play/820440/

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9/23/11 Outline Definitions of probability Structure of probability Unions Intersections Independent events Dependent events
9/23/11 Classical Empirical or Relative Frequency Mixture (Bayesian) Definitions of Probability

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9/23/11 You flip a coin 10 times, and 7 times the coin lands on heads. What is the probability that you will have a heads on the next flip? Example
9/23/11 You flip a coin 10 times, and 7 times the coin lands on heads. What is the probability that you will have a heads on the next single flip of the coin? Classical successes possible of number outcomes possible of number total : ) ( n e = = = N Where N E P n e

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9/23/11 Number of outcomes leading to the event divided by the total number of outcomes possible Each outcome is equally likely Determined a priori -- before performing the experiment Classical Probability
9/23/11 Culture From Calculus, Volume II by Tom M. Apostol (2nd edition, John Wiley & Sons, 1969 ): "A gambler's dispute in 1654 led to the creation of a mathematical theory of probability by two famous French mathematicians, Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat. Antoine Gombaud, Chevalier de Méré, a

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9/23/11 You flip a coin 10 times, and 7 times the coin lands on heads. What is the probability that you will have a heads on the next flip? Frequency of interest: 7 Total frequency: 10 P(H) = 7 / 10 = .7 Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability
9/23/11 Relative Frequency Probability Relative Frequency of Occurrence method – the probability of an event is equal to the number of times the event has occurred in

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## This note was uploaded on 09/23/2011 for the course QMST 2333 taught by Professor Mendez during the Fall '08 term at Texas State.

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Lecture 5 fall 2011 - Welcome to the Jungle Click to edit Master subtitle style http www.ebaumsworld.com/audio/play/820440 Outline Definitions of

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