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Miller et al - Ecosystem Collapse

Miller et al - Ecosystem Collapse - Ecosystem Collapse in...

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DOI: 10.1126/science.1111288 , 287 (2005); 309 Science et al. Gifford H. Miller, Human Role in Megafaunal Extinction Ecosystem Collapse in Pleistocene Australia and a www.sciencemag.org (this information is current as of August 10, 2009 ): The following resources related to this article are available online at http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5732/287 version of this article at: including high-resolution figures, can be found in the online Updated information and services, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5732/287/DC1 can be found at: Supporting Online Material found at: can be related to this article A list of selected additional articles on the Science Web sites http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5732/287#related-content http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5732/287#otherarticles , 4 of which can be accessed for free: cites 14 articles This article 57 article(s) on the ISI Web of Science. cited by This article has been http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/309/5732/287#otherarticles 11 articles hosted by HighWire Press; see: cited by This article has been http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/collection/paleo Paleontology : subject collections This article appears in the following http://www.sciencemag.org/about/permissions.dtl in whole or in part can be found at: this article permission to reproduce of this article or about obtaining reprints Information about obtaining registered trademark of AAAS. is a Science 2005 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved. The title Copyright American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1200 New York Avenue NW, Washington, DC 20005. (print ISSN 0036-8075; online ISSN 1095-9203) is published weekly, except the last week in December, by the Science on August 10, 2009 www.sciencemag.org Downloaded from
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It is also important to investigate the in- fluence of the upgraded data set ( 2 ), sampling, and model uncertainties on our conclusions. In all our results, we use a sampling strategy that compares model and observations only where observations exist; we do not use the infilled or interpolated data set ( 11 ). As a test, however, we repeated the analysis using the infilled data and found that it made no difference to the conclusions. More details on these sampling issues are found in ( 16 ). We also estimated the impact that model errors might have on the results. Multiple models run with the same GHG forcing ( 25 ) show a factor of 2 dif- ference in ocean basin heat content after 80 years of integration ( 26 , 27 ). We estimated the effect that this had in the detection scheme and still found robust detection results above the level of natural variability ( 16 ). Therefore, the conclusion that the observed ocean warming is due to human influences is robust to major perturbations of both the observed data set and model error.
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