MGT 364 Ch 13-15 Vocab - - Forecastprediction of future...

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- Forecast—prediction of future events used for planning purposes - Time series—repeated observations of demand for a service or product in their order of occurrence - Aggregation—act of clustering several similar services or products so that forecasts and plans can be made for families - Collaborative planning, forecasting, and replenishment (CPFR)—nine-step process for supply chain integration that allows a supplier and its customers to collaborate on making the forecast by using the Internet - Judgment methods—forecasting method that translates the opinions of managers, expert opinions, consumer surveys, and salesforce estimates into quantitative estimates - Casual methods—quantitative forecasting method that uses historical data on independent variables (promos, econ condition) - Time-series analysis—statistical approach that relies heavily on historical demand data to project the future size of demand and recognizes trends and seasonal patterns - Salesforce estimates—forecasts that are compiled from estimates of future demands made periodically by members of a company’s salesfoce - Executive opinion—forecasting method in which the opinions, experience, and technical knowledge of one or more managers are summarized to arrive at a single forecast - Technological forecasting—application of executive opinion to keep abreast of the latest advances in technology - Market research—systematic approach to determine external consumer interest in a service or product by creating and testing hypotheses through data- gathering surveys - Delphi method—process of gaining consensus from a group of experts while maintaining their anonymity - Linear regression—casual method in which on variable is related to one or more independent variables by a linear equation - Dependent variable—variable that one wants to forecast - Independent variable—variables that affect dependent variable and cause the results - Naïve forecast—time series method whereby the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period - Simple moving average method—time series method used to estimate the average of a demand time series by averaging the demand for the N most recent time periods - Forecast error—difference found by subtracting the forecast from actual demand - Weighted moving average method—time series method, each historical demand in the average can have weight (all equal 1) - Exponential smoothing method—weighted moving average method that calculates the average of a time series by
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This note was uploaded on 09/27/2011 for the course MGT 364 taught by Professor Staff during the Fall '08 term at Missouri State University-Springfield.

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MGT 364 Ch 13-15 Vocab - - Forecastprediction of future...

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