Forecasting Techniques (Week 9)- Introduction toBusiness AnalyticsForecasting Methods-Qualitative and Judgemental Techniques: Rely on experience and intuition. oSuitable when lack of historical data and produce long term forecastsoHistorical Analogy: Look into similar situations in the pastoThe Delphi Method: Based on experts’ opinions. Repeats manytimes until convergence achieved. -Statistical Time Series ModelsoUse historical data and are suitable for short term forecastsoStationary Series: Moving Average and Exponential SmoothingoNon-Stationary series: Time Series with trend, seasonality -Explanatory/ Causal Methods (Econometric Models)oIdentify factors that explain statistically the patterns observed in the variable being forecast using usually regression. How do you plan for the future?-Look at past records-Identify the trend (tendency)-Identify a seasonal pattern for example for each year or third quarter of each year.