Lecture 9- Forecasting Techniques (Business Analytics).docx - Forecasting Techniques(Week 9 Introduction to Business Analytics Forecasting Methods

Lecture 9- Forecasting Techniques (Business Analytics).docx...

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Forecasting Techniques (Week 9)- Introduction to Business Analytics Forecasting Methods - Qualitative and Judgemental Techniques: Rely on experience and intuition. o Suitable when lack of historical data and produce long term forecasts o Historical Analogy: Look into similar situations in the past o The Delphi Method: Based on experts’ opinions. Repeats many times until convergence achieved. - Statistical Time Series Models o Use historical data and are suitable for short term forecasts o Stationary Series: Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing o Non-Stationary series: Time Series with trend, seasonality - Explanatory/ Causal Methods (Econometric Models) o Identify factors that explain statistically the patterns observed in the variable being forecast using usually regression. How do you plan for the future? - Look at past records - Identify the trend (tendency) - Identify a seasonal pattern for example for each year or third quarter of each year.
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  • Summer '20
  • Forecasting, one year, Time series analysis, Econometric Models

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