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Unformatted text preview: Basic Probability Page 1 Basic Probability Definitions h Probability represents a (standardized) measure of chance, and quantifies uncertainty. h Let S = sample space which is the set of all possible outcomes. h An event is a set of possible outcomes that is of interest. h If A is an event, then P(A) is the probability that event A occurs. gG¡¢ £ ¤¥¦§ ¨© ª«§ §¬§ª ¡ ¤¥¦§ ¨© ª«§ ¤®¯°±§ ¤°®²§ ³ Example. Identify the Sample Space, A’s and P(A)’s h What is the chance that it will rain today? h The number of maintenance calls for an old photocopier is twice that for the new photocopier. What is the chance that the next call will be regarding an old photocopier? h If I pull a card out of a pack of 52 cards, what is the chance it’s a spade? Union and Intersection of Events h The intersection of events A and B refers to the probability that both event A and event B occur. gG¡ ´ µ¢ h The union of events A and B refers to the probability that event A occurs or event B occurs or both events, A & B, occur. gG¡ ¶ µ¢ Basic Probability Mutually Exclusive Events Mutually exclusive events cann Mutually Exclusive Ev Example. A manufacturer of f temperature environment usin table shows the performance o Intensity Good Good 100 Satisfactory 35 Unsatisfactory 10 Total 145 h What is the probability Life? h What is the probability h What is the probability or Good in Intensity? S not occur at the same time. vents Not Mutually Exclusive front lights for automobiles tests lamps under a high ng intensity and useful life as the responses of intere of 200 lamps. Useful Life Satisfactory Unsatisfactory T 25 5 1 10 5 5 8 2 2 43 12 2 y that a randomly chosen light will have performed G y that a randomly chosen light will have performed G y that a randomly chosen light will have performed G S Page 2 e Events h humidity, high est. The following Total 130 50 20 200 Good in Useful Good in Intensity?...
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 Spring '10
 Wheatley
 Probability, Probability theory, software problem, Union of Two Events

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