08344488.pdf - 6240 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS VOL 33 NO 6 NOVEMBER 2018 Power System Capacity Expansion Under Higher Penetration of Renewables

08344488.pdf - 6240 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS VOL...

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6240 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON POWER SYSTEMS, VOL. 33, NO. 6, NOVEMBER 2018 Power System Capacity Expansion Under Higher Penetration of Renewables Considering Flexibility Constraints and Low Carbon Policies Xinyu Chen , Member, IEEE , Jiajun Lv , Student Member, IEEE , Michael B. McElroy , Xingning Han, Chris P. Nielsen, and Jinyu Wen , Member, IEEE Abstract —Deploying high penetration of variable renewables represents a critical pathway for deep decarbonizing the power sector. The conflict between their temporal variability and lim- ited system flexibility has been largely ignored currently at plan- ning stage. Here, we present a novel capacity expansion model optimizing investment decisions and full-year, hourly power bal- ances simultaneously, with considerations of storage technologies and policy constraints, such as carbon tax and renewable portfo- lio standards (RPS). Based on a computational efficient modeling formulation, all flexibility constrains (ramping, reserve, minimum output, minimal online/offline time) for the 8760-h duration are incorporated. The proposed model is applied to the northwestern grid of China to examine the optimal composition and distribution of power investments with a wide range of renewable targets. Re- sults indicate that the cost can increase moderately toward 45% of RPS, when properly designing the generation portfolio: priori- tizing wind investments, distributing renewable investments more evenly, and deploying more flexible midsize coal and gas units. Reaching higher penetrations of renewables is expensive and the reductions of storage costs are critically important for an afford- able low-carbon future. RPS or carbon taxes to reach a same target of emission reduction in China will result in similar overall costs but different generation mixes. Index Terms —Flexibility, long-term planning, variable renew- ables, carbon tax, renewable portfolio standards, energy storage. I. I NTRODUCTION I NCREASING the penetration of variable renewables-wind and solar-is regarded as a critical pathway for the transition Manuscript received August 1, 2017; revised November 11, 2017 and Febru- ary 20, 2018; accepted March 30, 2018. Date of publication April 20, 2018; date of current version October 18, 2018. This work was supported in part by the Harvard Global Institute and Ash Center at Harvard Kennedy School of gov- ernment, and also in part by the State Key Laboratory on Smart Grid Protection and Operation Control of NARI Group under the open topic Project 20171613. Paper no. TPWRS-01188-2017. (Corresponding author: Michael B. McElroy.) X. Chen, M. B. McElroy, and C. P. Nielsen are with the Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA (e-mail: , [email protected]; [email protected]; [email protected]arvard.edu). J. Lv is with the School of Electrical Engineering, Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an 710049, China (e-mail: , [email protected]).
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