0620 Decision making 1 - ITNL 3200 June 20, 2011 Decision...

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Decision making 1 :Groups and Group dynamics ITNL 3200 June 20, 2011
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Graham Allison: Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis Graham Allison and His book, Essence of Decision :He introduced and compared three models in his analysis of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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Graham Allison: Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis Most analysts explain the decisions of national government in terms of one basic conceptual model: Rational Actor Model (Model I) Two alternative conceptual models: Organizational Process Model (Model II) , and a Bureaucratic Politics Model (Model III) provide a base for improved explanations and predictions. Model II emphasizes the processes and procedures of the large organizations that constitute a government. Model III focuses on the politics among different bureaucracies within a government.
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Graham Allison: Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis Allison used the Cuban Missile Crisis as a case study for the study of foreign policy decisions. To illustrate the models, Allison poses the following three questions in each section: 1. Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba?
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Graham Allison: Conceptual Models and the Cuban Missile Crisis Main figures -JFK(President), Robert Kennedy (Attorney General), Robert Mcnamara (Secretary of defense), Theodore Sorensen (special counsel ) -Curtis LeMay (Air Force General) and other EXCOMM members Options -Do nothing: Munich all over again /
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Model I: Rational Actor Model The model treats a government as the single and coherent primary actor . The decision makers accurately map and examine all possible sets of alternatives to achieve their policy goals. And estimate the cost and benefits that follow each possible choice in the form of decision trees (exhaustive search). And finally choose the option that maximize
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Model I: Rational Actor Model 4 steps of Allison’s rational decision 1. Goals and objectives : Establish your goals and objectives 2. Options : Various courses of action relevant to a strategic problem provide the spectrum of options.
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This note was uploaded on 10/04/2011 for the course INTL 3200 taught by Professor Wilson during the Summer '08 term at University of Georgia Athens.

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0620 Decision making 1 - ITNL 3200 June 20, 2011 Decision...

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