0624 Nuclear deterrence and nuclear spread

0624 Nuclear deterrence and nuclear spread - ITNL 3200 June...

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Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Spread ITNL 3200 June 24, 2011
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The Spread of Nuclear Weapon Kenneth Waltz Nuclear optimist: Stability and deterrence Nuclear development is rational decision for national security and difficult to prevent Theory: Rational Actor Model, Neo-realism (Defensive realism), Deterrence theory Unit of Analysis: The state
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Waltz: the power of deterrence There is a fundamental difference between conventional and nuclear weapons . The suffering from nuclear war is unlimited . Gap in the conventional weapon capability can be easily bridged by nuclear weapon. It has relatively small size and it is highly mobile and easy to hide. You cannot completely eliminate second strike capability from the enemy by first
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Waltz: the power of deterrence This logic eliminates the advantage of preemptive or preventive strike (defensive advantage) . Unacceptably high cost of assured destruction create self-restraint from the enemies make them very careful. Ex. Even Hitler would have been deterred if Germany had faced nuclear weapons. Even if not, his generals would have stopped him. Madman theory is defunct .
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Waltz: the power of deterrence States will fear the escalation of military engagement from conventional to nuclear level , and they tend to draw back from the brink (Cuban missile crisis). Nuclear weapons make war between nuclear powers less likely , and even if they fight, they fight only at lower
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Waltz: Nuclear Stability in South India ’s threat perception from Nuclear China . Pakistan ’s need of nukes: India is five times larger than itself. History of three wars. It’s economically impossible to compete with India with conventional weapons. The danger of preventive war has been eliminated by the development of deliverable nuclear weapons in both countries after May 1998.
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Waltz: the power of deterrence
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Waltz: Nuclear Stability in South Waltz’ criticism toward Sagan Logic of deterrence from Nuclear weapons and second-strike capability is very
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0624 Nuclear deterrence and nuclear spread - ITNL 3200 June...

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