Public Opinion - -samples must be random to produce useful...

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Polling -opinion poll -population and sample -Ex: CNN poll on Bush – Kerry (Nov. 1 2004) -Kerry 50%, Bush 49% -n=893 LV; nationwide; MoE +/- 4% -n= number of people sampled, LV = likely voters, MoE= margin of error -margin of error: reflects uncertainty inherent in sampling Problems - Literary Digest magazine 1936 -telephone poll of its subscribers -predict FDR will lose in a landslide -Roosevelt wins with largest margin of victory since 1812 Sample -carefully chosen subset of a larger population
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Unformatted text preview: -samples must be random to produce useful polls-use random digit dialers-Leterary Digest poll was not random-biased on high incomes (and likelye race/age too) Other Issues-“non-attitudes”-randomness and instability over time-if attitudes are not genuine, they may change with tie-random or coerced responses-propensity to guess-social desirability effects-people who don’t know the answer seek info from the questions-questions can prompt or mislead...
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This note was uploaded on 10/04/2011 for the course POLS 1105H taught by Professor Schatzinger during the Spring '07 term at University of Georgia Athens.

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