September 28 Lecture

September 28 Lecture - Lecture September 28, 2011 Chapter 3...

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Lecture September 28, 2011
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Chapter 3 Probability and the Binomial Distribution • Read section 3.1 on your own
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Section 3.2 • Introduction to Probability
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Probability What does the term probability mean to you? You might use words like chance, likelihood, odds, etc. to describe probability. We can think of probability in a few different ways.
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Subjective Based on intuition we guess what the probability is. i.e. There’s a 99% chance I’ll pass the course. There’s a 0% chance that the Leafs will win the cup in 2012.
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Subjective Advantage: No difficult formulas. Your answer is based on intuition or possibly some prior information. Disadvantage: No basis for value other than intuition or “gut feeling”. It’s not very scientific.
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Probability (Relative Frequency) • Example – coin tossing • Only two possible outcomes when tossing a coin – head or tails. • Figure on the next slide – results of tossing a coin 5,000 times • For each number of tosses from 1 to 5,000, plotted the proportion of those tosses that gave a head. • Trial A (solid red line): 1st toss = tail, and so on….
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Tossing a Coin
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• What do you notice? • Proportion of heads is quite variable at first, but it settles down as we make more and more tosses. • Eventually this proportion gets close to 0.5
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September 28 Lecture - Lecture September 28, 2011 Chapter 3...

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