Forecasting problems Fall 11

Forecasting problems Fall 11 - 5 10% 15 6 6% 22 7 11% 15 8...

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Month Demand 1 62 61.00 2 65 61.30 3 67 62.41 4 68 64.67 3.33 3.33 11.11 65.40 2.60 2.60 6.76 63.79 4.213 4.21 17.75 5 71 66.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 67.10 3.90 3.90 15.21 65.05 5.949 5.95 35.39 6 73 68.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 69.30 3.70 3.70 13.69 66.84 6.164 6.16 38.00 7 76 70.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 71.40 4.60 4.60 21.16 68.68 7.315 7.32 53.51 8 78 73.33 4.67 4.67 21.78 74.10 3.90 3.90 15.21 70.88 7.121 7.12 50.70 9 78 75.67 2.33 2.33 5.44 76.40 1.60 1.60 2.56 73.02 4.984 4.98 24.84 10 80 77.33 2.67 2.67 7.11 77.60 2.40 2.40 5.76 74.51 5.489 5.49 30.13 11 84 78.67 5.33 5.33 28.44 79.00 5.00 5.00 25.00 76.16 7.842 7.84 61.50 12 85 80.67 4.33 4.33 18.78 81.60 3.40 3.40 11.56 78.51 6.490 6.49 42.12 Average Error 4.07 3.46 6.17 MAD 4.07 3.46 6.17 MSE 19.83 14.61 44.24 3 month MA Forecast Forecast Error Absolute error Error squared 3 month weighted moving average (.50, .30, .20) Forecast Error Absolute error Error squared Exponential Smoothing alpha = .30 Forecast Error Absolute error Error squared
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Month Interest rateLoans forecast 1 7% 20 4.25% 30.1366 2 5% 30 10.75% 13.2996 3 4% 35 8.00% 20.4229 4 8% 18 6.50% 24.3084
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Unformatted text preview: 5 10% 15 6 6% 22 7 11% 15 8 9% 20 9 5% 27 10 12% 10 SUMMARY OUTPUT Regression Statistics Multiple R 0.9395672946 R Square 0.8827867011 Adjusted R 0.8681350387 Standard E 2.7538519279 Observatio 10 ANOVA df SS MS F Significance F Regression 1 456.9304 456.9304 60.251641 5.423E-005 Residual 8 60.669604 7.5837004 Total 9 517.6 Coefficients tandard Erro t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% Intercept 41.1453744493 2.7131122 15.165379 3.54E-007 34.8889264 47.401822 34.888926 47.401822 X Variable -259.030837 33.370832 -7.762193 5.42E-005-335.98411 -182.0776 -335.9841 -182.0776 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 11% 12% 13% 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 f(x) = -259.0308370044x + 41.1453744493 R = 0.8827867011 Column C Linear Regression for Column C...
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Forecasting problems Fall 11 - 5 10% 15 6 6% 22 7 11% 15 8...

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