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Unformatted text preview: Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Overview History 1969  Allin Cornell BSSA paper Rapid development since that time Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Overview Deterministic (DSHA) Assumes a single scenario Select a single magnitude, M Select a single distance, R Assume effects due to M, R Probabilistic (PSHA) Assumes many scenarios Consider all magnitudes Consider all distances Consider all effects Ground motion parameters Ground motion parameters Ground motion parameters Ground motion parameters Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Overview Probabilistic (PSHA) Assumes many scenarios Consider all magnitudes Consider all distances Consider all effects Ground motion parameters Ground motion parameters Why? Because we dont know when earthquakes will occur, we dont know where they will occur, and we dont know how big they will be Why? Because we dont know when earthquakes will occur, we dont know where they will occur, and we dont know how big they will be Consists of four primary steps: 1. Identification and characterization of all sources 2. Characterization of seismicity of each source 3. Determination of motions from each source 4. Probabilistic calculations Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis PSHA characterizes uncertainty in location, size, frequency, and effects of earthquakes, and combines all of them to compute probabilities of different levels of ground shaking PSHA characterizes uncertainty in location, size, frequency, and effects of earthquakes, and combines all of them to compute probabilities of different levels of ground shaking Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Uncertainty in sourcesite distance Need to specify distance measure Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship r hypo r seis r rup r jb Seismogenic depth Vertical Faults Vertical Faults Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Uncertainty in sourcesite distance Need to specify distance measure Based on distance measure in attenuation relationship Dipping Faults Dipping Faults r hypo r seis r rup r jb =0 r hypo r seis & r rup r jb Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Uncertainty in sourcesite distance Where on fault is rupture most likely to occur? Sourcesite distance depends on where rupture occurs Sourcesite distance depends on where rupture occurs Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Uncertainty in sourcesite distance Where is rupture most likely to occur? We dont know Sourcesite distance depends on where rupture occurs Sourcesite distance depends on where rupture occurs Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis Uncertainty in sourcesite distance Approach: r min r max r f R (r) r min...
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 Winter '06
 Eberhard

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