09-15 Public Opinion - I September 15 II PoliticalTrust...

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1 September 15 Terms: Straw Poll Sampling Error “Bradley Effect” Push Poll Nonpolls I. Measuring Public Opinion II. Political Trust A. Opinion Polls B. Sampling C. Technology D. Challenges Method of questioning a small sample of respondents to represent the total population George Gallup Elmo Roper Randomness Eligible vs. Registered vs. Likely Voters Registered Voters (2004) Kerry (48%) – Bush (46%) Likely Voters (2004) Bush (49%) – Kerry (47%) Telephone polling Cell phones Internet
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2 Sampling Error Coverage Error Non Responses Tom Bradley Lying Proper Questions y Close ended y Open ended y Push Polls Would you support or oppose changing Senate rules to make it easier for the Republicans to confirm Bush’s judicial nominees? Support 26% Oppose 66% Washington Post/ABC News Poll 1007 Adults, April 21 24, 2005 Margin of Error +/ 3% Senate rules should be changed so that a vote must be taken on every person the President nominates to become judge.
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