Chapter_3 Forecasting

# Chapter_3 Forecasting - Exponential Smoothing(Example 3...

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Exponential Smoothing (Example 3) Alpha = Smoothing constant Period (t) Actual Demand Forecast Error |Error| 0.7 1 42 2 40 42.00 -2.00 2 3 43 40.60 2.40 2.4 4 40 42.28 -2.28 2.28 5 41 40.68 0.32 0.316 6 39 40.91 -1.91 1.9052 7 46 39.57 6.43 6.42844 8 44 44.07 -0.07 0.07147 9 45 44.02 0.98 0.97856 10 38 44.71 -6.71 6.70643 11 40 40.01 -0.01 0.01193 12 40.00 MAD (0.1) 2.4479 MAD (0.2) 2.4761 MAD (0.4) 2.443 MAD (0.7) 2.3098 Linear Trend (Example 4) Week Unit Sales 1 700 2 724 3 720 4 728 5 740 6 742 7 758 8 750 9 770 10 775 Linear Trend Calculations Linear Trend Calculations (Midterm Exam) t y ty n t y ty n 1 700 700 1 10 1 325 325 1 4 2 724 1448 4 2 335 670 4 3 720 2160 9 3 172 516 9 4 728 2912 16 4 645 2580 16 5 740 3700 25 6 742 4452 36 7 758 5306 49 8 750 6000 64 9 770 6930 81 10 775 7750 100 Σ 55 7407 41358 385 Σ 10 1477 4091 30 b 7.51 b 79.70 2401.6 a 699.4 a 170 Linear Regression (Example 8) Sales, x Profits, y 7 0.15 2 0.1 6 0.13 4 0.15 14 0.25 15 0.27 16 0.24 12 0.2 14 0.27 20 0.44 15

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## This note was uploaded on 10/16/2011 for the course DS 412 taught by Professor Eng during the Spring '07 term at S.F. State.

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Chapter_3 Forecasting - Exponential Smoothing(Example 3...

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