Homework_solutions

Homework_solutions - Solutions to Homework Problems...

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Solutions to Homework Problems: Decision Analysis (Supplement Chapter 5) 6. MaxiMax MaxiMin Laplace Alternative (a) Max. Payoff (b) Min. Payoff (c) Average Renew $4,000,000 $500,000* $2,250,000 Relocate $5,000,000* $100,000 $2,550,000* Decision: Relocate Renew Relocate 7. Alternative Expected Value a. Renew 500,000(.35) + 4,000,000(.65) = $2,775,000* Relocate 5,000,000(.35) + 100,000(.65) = $1,815,000 Decision: Renew lease c. EVPI = EPC – EMV = .35(5,000,000) + .65(4,000,000) - 2,775,000 = $1,575,000 Yes, the manager should sign the lease for $24,000 since it is less than the EVPI of $1,575,000. $500,000 $4,000,000 Approve (.35) Reject (.65) Approve (.35) Reject (.65) $5,000,000 $100,000 $2,775,000* $1,815,000 E.V. Renew Relocate
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11. EV 1 = (1/3)(0) + (1/3)(60) + (1/3)(90) = 50 EV 2 = (1/3)(-45) + (1/3)(45) + (1/3)(99) = 33 EV 3 = (1/2)(40) + (1/2)(50) = 45 EV 4 = (.3)(50) + (.5)(44) + (.2)(60) = 49 EV 15 = (.3)(40) + (.5)(50) + (.2)(45) = 46 Since 49 > 46, choose alternative A. 13. Moderate High Very High Worst Best Average Reassign 50 60 85 85 50 65 New Staff 60 60 60 60* 60 60 (tie) Redesign 40 50 90 90 40* 60 (45) 99 .30 .30 .50 60 40 Alternative A Alternative B 49 .20 50 0 90 60 1 40 2 1/3 1/3 .50 50 5 1/3 44 45 40 1/3 .20 3 50 1/2 4 1/3 1/3 45 30 1/2 40
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a. Maximin: New staff b. Maximax: Redesign d. Insufficient reason: (tie) New Staff or Redesign 14. a. Reassign: .10(50) + .30(60) + .60(85) = $74 New Staff: .10(60) + .30(60) + .60(60) = 60* Redesign: .10(40) + .30(50) + .60(90) = 73 b. New Staff Reassign Redesign 50 60 85 60 60 60 40 50 90 .30 High .60 Very High .10 Moderate .30 High .60 Very High .10 Moderate .30 High .60 Very High .10 Moderate 74 60 73 60
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Solutions to Homework Problems: Capacity Planning (Chapter 5) 3. FC = $9200/month VC = $.70/unit Rev = $.90/unit a. Q BEP = FC = $9,200 = 46,000 units Rev – VC $.90 - $.70 b. Profit = Rev x Q - (FC + VC x Q) 1. P 61,000 = $.90(61,000) - [$9,200 + $.70(61,000)] = $3,000 2. P 87,000 = $.90(87,000) - [$9,200 + $.70(87,000)] = $8,200 c. Q = Specified profit + FC = $16,000 + 9,200/month = 126,000 units. Rev – VC $.90/unit - $.70/unit d. Total Revenue = Rev x Q, so Q = Total Revenue = $23,000 = 25,556 units R $.90/unit e. 1. 0 Volume (units) TR = $90,000 @ Q = 100,000 units TC = $79,200 @ Q = 100,000 units TR TC 100,000 $100,000 $50,000 $9,200 Cost
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8. Source FC VC Internal 1 $200,000 $17 Internal 2 240,000 14 Vendor A 20 up to 30,000 units Vendor B 22 for 1 to 999; 18 each if larger amount Vendor C 21 for 1 to 1,000; 19 each for additional units. a. TC for 10,000 units: TC for 20,000 units Int. 1: 200,000 + 17(10,000) = $370,000 $200,000 + $17(20,000) = $540,000 Int. 2: 240,000 + 14(10,000) = $380,000 $240,000 + $14(20,000) = $520,000 Vend A 20(10,000) = $200,000 $20(20,000) = $400,000 $18(20,000) = $360,000 (opt.) Vend B 18(10,000) = $180,000 (opt.) $ 21,000 + $19(19,000) = $382,000 Vend C 21,000 + 19( 9,000) = $192,000 b. Range Optimal Choice 1 to 999 A @ $20 each 1,000 to 59,999 B @ $18 each 60,000 or more Int. 2 @ $14 each + 240,000
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Solutions to Homework Problems: Forecasting (Chapter 3) 2) b. (1) t Y tY 1 19 19 From Table 3-1 with n = 7, Σ t = 28, Σ t 2 = 140 2 18 36 b = n Σ tY– Σ t Σ Y = 7(542) – 28(132) = .50 3 15 45 n Σ t 2 – ( Σ t) 2 7(140) – 28(28) 4 20 80 5 18 90 a = Σ Y – b Σ t = 132 – .50(28) =16.86 6 22 132 n 7 7 20 140 132 542 For Sept., t = 8, and Y t = 16.86 + .50(8) = 20.86 (000) (2) 19 5 20 22 18 20 15 MA 5 = + + + + = (3) Month Forecast F(old) + .20[Actual – F(old)] Mar 19 19 + .20[ 18 – 19 ] Apr 18.8 18.8 + .20[ 15 – 18.8 ] May 18.04 18.04 + .20[ 20 – 18.04 ] Jun 18.43 18.43 + .20[ 18 – 18.43 ] Jul 18.34 18.34 + .20[ 22 – 18.34 ] Aug 19.07 19.07 + .20[ 20 – 19.07 ] (4) 20 (5) .6 (20) + .3(22) + .1(18) = 20.4 c.
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Homework_solutions - Solutions to Homework Problems...

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