Forecasting

Forecasting - FC-1Introduction toForecastingFC-2FORECAST:A...

Info iconThis preview shows pages 1–10. Sign up to view the full content.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon

Info iconThis preview has intentionally blurred sections. Sign up to view the full version.

View Full DocumentRight Arrow Icon
This is the end of the preview. Sign up to access the rest of the document.

Unformatted text preview: FC-1Introduction toForecastingFC-2FORECAST:A statement about the futureUsed to help managersPlan the systemPlan the use of the systemFC-3AccountingCost/profit estimatesFinanceCash flow and fundingHuman ResourcesHiring/recruiting/trainingMarketingPricing, promotion, strategyMISIT/IS systems, servicesOperationsSchedules, MRP, workloadsProduct/service designNew products and servicesUses of ForecastsFC-4Assumes causal systempast ==> futureForecasts rarely perfect because of randomnessForecasts more accurate forgroups vs. individualsForecast accuracy decreases as time horizon increasesI see that you willget an A this semester.FC-5Elements of a Good ForecastTimelyAccurateReliableMeaningfulWrittenEasytouseFC-6Steps in the Forecasting ProcessStep 1 Determine purpose of forecastStep 2 Establish a time horizonStep 3 Select a forecasting techniqueStep 4 Gather and analyze dataStep 5 Prepare the forecastStep 6 Monitor the forecastThe forecastFC-7Forecasting and PlanningTime HorizonType of PlanningVolumeofForecastsCostofErrorsLong Range(one year and longer)Capacity PlanningLocation PlanningIntroduction of a new productMajor Capital PurchasesLowHighMedium Range(three months to one year)Aggregate Production PlanningSeasonal Inventory PolicyOvertime PolicyWorkforce LevelsAmount of SubcontractingHigherLowerShort Range(up to three months)Parts Inventory ManagementScheduling of OperationsPersonnel SchedulingMaintenance PlanningHighLowFC-8Types of ForecastsJudgmental- uses subjective inputsTime series Models - uses historical data assuming the future will be like the pastCausal Models (Regression Models) - uses explanatory variables to predict the futureFC-9Forecasting ModelsQualitativeHuman JudgmentExpert OpinionDelphi MethodSales Force Composite called Grassroots or Bottom up estimateCustomer SurveysQuantitativeMath ModelsRegression AnalysisMoving Averages...
View Full Document

This note was uploaded on 10/16/2011 for the course DS 412 taught by Professor Eng during the Spring '07 term at S.F. State.

Page1 / 31

Forecasting - FC-1Introduction toForecastingFC-2FORECAST:A...

This preview shows document pages 1 - 10. Sign up to view the full document.

View Full Document Right Arrow Icon
Ask a homework question - tutors are online