Its Fourth and Two - b Miss 0 and ball on 2 States of Play...

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Its Fourth and Two: Dynamic Sports Modeling 13/01/2010 10:29:00 Rational Decisions Easy Ball on the @, 1 sec left, UM 26 - MSU 22 1) Go For It Score: 28-26 WIN Fail: 26-22 LOSSS 2)  FG Make: 26-25 Loss Miss: 26-22 LOSS Rational Decisions Hard Ball on 2. 55 min remaining, no score 1) Go For TD a. (.4) Make: +7 and kickoff    (.4 * 7 = 2.8 pts average) b. Miss: 0 and ball on 2 2) Go For FG a. (.95) Make: +3 and kickoff  (.95 * 3 = 2.85 pts average)
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Unformatted text preview: b. Miss: 0 and ball on 2 States of Play in Football • Score • Possession • Yard line • Down and distance • Time remaining • Time outs • Injuries Transition Probability • Probability of moving from one state to another Value • How many points its worth to leave the opponents on the 2, rather than kick off 13/01/2010 10:29:00 ← 13/01/2010 10:29:00 ←...
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Its Fourth and Two - b Miss 0 and ball on 2 States of Play...

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