09_27+%28After+Break%29+Introduction+to+Sampling+-+Ch7 - 1...

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Unformatted text preview: 1 Sociology SYA4300 Professor Rob White Tuesday (9/27) Introduction to Sampling (After the Break) 1 ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ 2 Introduction to Sampling: The 1936 Election Roosevelt (Democrat) VS Landon (Republican) The Literary Digests prediction: Landon wins, and Roosevelt gets 43% of the votes. Election result: Roosevelt wins, with 62% of the votes. The Digest predicted the wrong winner, and the predicted percentage was off by almost 20 percentage points! What went wrong? ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ ___________________________________ 3 The Digests Sampling Method Sample selection: the Digest made a list of people by combining phone books and lists of club membership. They randomly picked 10 million people from this list, and mailed them a questionnaire. 2.4 million people returned the questionnaire. 43% of these people planned to vote for Roosevelt....
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