NRC 100 Notes - NRC 100 September 23rd, 2010 Climate Change...

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NRC 100 September 23 rd , 2010 Climate Change Consensus, uncertainties and impacts Key Concepts Forcing factors Consensus Uncertainty Current/potential impacts: -Sea level rise Ecological Effects Edith’s checker spot butterfly since 1900 92 km shift northward 124 shift high elevation Dr. Camille Parmesan –maybe they change their range Conclusion: o Changing of the climate was the reason the butterfly shifted their region higher o Research was published in 1996 o Invited to Intergovernmental Climate Change PRS #1: The graph presented by Al Gore illustrates primarily… Current levels of CO2 in the atmosphere are higher than at anytime in the past 400,000 years PRS#2: In science, uncertainty means that… The best available scientific information predicts a range of possible outcomes Virtually certain >99% Extremely likely >95% Very Likely >90% Likely >66% More likely than not >50% About as likely as not 33-66% Unlikely <33% Very Unlikely <10% Extremely Unlikely <5%
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NRC 100 Notes - NRC 100 September 23rd, 2010 Climate Change...

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