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ForecastingPartIII(2,18)

ForecastingPartIII(2,18) - Forecasting Time Series with...

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Forecasting Time Series with Trend Forecasting Time Series with Trend Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 Demand 1 4 7 10 13 ? Question: Can we forecast the demand for period 6 by using Moving Average or Exponential Smoothing Methods? Question: What if we did (by mistake)? What would be the result?
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Example: Period 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Demand 163 150 175 186 225 295 305 370 ? 0 5 0 10 0 15 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0 4 0 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Time Period (t) Demand
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Forecasting Time Series with Trend 8 7 6 1 Demand Period (t) Actual Demand,  Forecasted Demand,  2 3 4 5 ˆ t D a bt = +
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Forecasting Time Series with Trend Suppose you use the regression line to forecast demand in period t. Question: What is the error in period t? The sum of the squared errors: We need to find best value of “a” and “b” for line , so
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ForecastingPartIII(2,18) - Forecasting Time Series with...

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