ForecastingPartIV(2,18)

ForecastingPartIV(2,18) - Forecasting Seasonal Series • A...

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Unformatted text preview: Forecasting Seasonal Series • A seasonal series is one that has a pattern which repeats every N periods Pe r iod De m and 1 4 2 7 3 9 4 14 5 8 6 3 7 5 8 10 9 15 10 11 11 2 12 5 13 8 14 14 15 12 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Pe r io d s Demand N=5 N=5 Forecasting Seasonal Series • Seasonal Factor: S e a s o na l fa c to r S i (1 ≤ i ≤ N) re pre s e nts the po rtio n o f to ta l de m a nd o b s e rve d in s e a s o n i. S i can be calculated using the following formula: • Question: What are the seasonal factors for the given data in the table above. • Question : What does the “forecasting for a seasonal series” mean? SEASONAL FACTOR METHOD: • This method can be used only if the series exhibit no trend. • Example 2: The County Transportation Department needs to determine usage factors by day of the week for popular toll bridge connecting different parts of the...
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ForecastingPartIV(2,18) - Forecasting Seasonal Series • A...

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