Intermediate Statistics

Intermediate Statistics - 1/19/2011 Lecture 1: January 19,...

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Unformatted text preview: 1/19/2011 Lecture 1: January 19, 2011 • The Course: • Intermediate Statistics for Business and Economics • Course Number: FinOpMgt 250/Res Ec 213 • Who Am I? • Bernard J. Morzuch • You don’t have to call me Doctor Morzuch. • I can’t draw blood. • I’m still taken aback by the title “Professor” Morzuch. • If you insist on a title, you may call me Mr. Morzuch. • But “Mr.” Morzuch is my dad. He’s still alive! • If you insist on a title, what is suitable? • Call me Uncle Bernie. • Everybody has an Uncle Bernie. • Let’s check out: • Sections of the syllabus 1 1/19/2011 • Web Site: • The following URL lets you gain access to pertinent material for the course. You may want to bookmark this address: •‐morzuch/ • Once there, click on: • Syllabus • CONNECT & PRS Components • Reading List • Lecture Notes • Handouts • Spire ID/PRS Transmitter • CONNECT Student Login • Spark • I already sent you a copy of the syllabus. • Teaching Assistants and Office Hours: • Undergraduate TAs: – Robin Breen – Ilya Chernyakovskiy – Arjun Saraswat – Chelsea Blanchard – Justin Pinkos – William Fan • Undergraduate TA Office Hours: SOM 321 B – I will let you know their office hours next Monday. • Graduate TAs: – Christopher Burns – Jonathan Farland • Graduate TA Office Hours: Stockbridge 210 – I will let you know their office hours next Monday. • Required Text: • It is available at the Textbook Annex and also on‐line directly from the publisher. • Custom edition of Applied Statistics in Business & Economics, Volume 2 (ISBN: 9780077489120) by David P. Doane and Lori E. Seward, 3rd edition. • This is Chapters 10‐17 of the original text. • An on‐line tool named Connect comes bundled with the custom edition of the text. • What is Connect? 2 1/19/2011 What is Connect ? • It is similar to OWL. • It provides access to all of the problems in the text. • It permits me to create practice or “pre‐lecture” exercises out of these problems. – I will assign problems to you. – You will complete them before the next class. • It also permits me to create quizzes on‐line and therefore to get away from paper grading of quizzes. • Connect is an integral part of this course, and everyone must have it. • Radio Frequency Personal Response System (RF PRS) Transmitter: • This is required for use during lectures and is available at all Textbook Annex checkouts. • You will not find it in the same location where you purchase the textbook. • New price is $52. Used price is $39. • There is no reason not to buy a used transmitter. • Both new and used transmitters come with fresh batteries. • The Textbook Annex will buy the transmitter back at the end of the semester. I can’t give you a price, but it is usually about half the purchase price. • The RF PRS transmitter is used in 32 other courses. About The Course • Prerequisites: – Res Ec 212 or Res Ec 211 or Statistics 240 • What this course is: – the second course in a two‐course sequence for Isenberg School of Management majors and for some Res Ec majors – an introduction to some relatively sophisticated methods for analyzing data and drawing inferences from data. – These methods are beyond a first course in statistics and are used a lot in business and economics. 3 1/19/2011 Examinations • There will be two two‐hour examinations in addition to a final exam. • The first two exams are scheduled for Friday, February 25 and Friday, April 8. • Each exam is scheduled from 3:30‐5:30 p.m. • A final exam will be scheduled during finals week. • We never know the exact date for the final exam until later in the semester. • Don’t make plans for leaving until the final is over. • The lower of the first two exams counts 10% toward your final grade. • The higher of the first two exams counts 30% toward your final grade. • The final exam counts 35% toward your final grade. Connect‐Based Requirements: • You will have 15‐20 practice or “pre‐lecture” assignments during the semester using Connect. • Completing these counts for 5% toward your final grade. • You will also take 5‐10 Connect quizzes during the semester. • Connect quizzes count 10% toward your final grade. • I will have all of this spelled out in “Connect and PRS Components” on my web page. This will be ready sometime next week. PRS Activities • Each transmitter (or clicker) has a unique ID. • You must register your clicker to create a link between your clicker ID and your Spire ID. • Do the registration by following the directions in Spire ID/PRS Transmitter on the course web site. • You will earn a PRS score based on correct responses to questions during each lecture. • You must bring your transmitter to each lecture to earn points! • PRS activities count for 5% of your final grade. • Read “Connect and PRS Components” on the course web site. Again, this will be ready next week. 4 1/19/2011 Storing Your SPIRE ID Into Your Radio Frequency (RF) Unit 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. Turn on Clicker‐‐ Battery symbol displayed Stop scan by hitting “*” on the keypad Hit “*” again which takes you to the Setup Menu Scroll Up to ID: Hit “Send/Enter” key (green button) Type ID number; your 8 digit SPIRE ID number Hit “Send/Enter” Hit “*” to exit Setup Menu ID is now stored in the unit Can now re‐scan by selecting New Class Scan, or by turning unit off and on. This may take minutes! Cheating • The University has a very strict policy on academic dishonesty, which you should know. • If you are ever suspected of cheating, you risk earning an F for the course. • You also risk being suspended from the University. • Are you inclined to “click” for a friend? • My advice: the cost is much greater than the expected benefit. • Are you inclined to be dishonest on an exam? • Talk to me before you do so. Discussions • Discussions meet each Friday in various SOM classrooms. • Discussion times: – 9:05 a.m. – 9:55 a.m. – 10:10 a.m.‐11:00 a.m. – 11:15 a.m.‐12:05 p.m. – 12:20 p.m.‐ 1:00 p.m. • Discussion Agenda Item 1: – You will address issues for problems with worked‐out solutions. • Discussion Agenda Item 2: – You’ll be a member of a five‐person or six‐person team. – You’ll do a statistical analysis on an assigned topic. – At the conclusion, one member from each group will give an oral presentation. Each group will do a different task. • Discussions are graded. Discussion is worth 5% of your final grade. • Discussions meet this Friday. Teams will be established. 5 1/19/2011 • • • • • • • • • Summary of Grading Scheme: Lower of Exam 1 or Exam 2 10% Higher of Exam 1 or Exam 2 30% Final exam 35% Connect prelecture assignments 5% Connect quizzes 10% PRS activities 5% Discussion 5% Total 100% • Final Grade: • The following shows the minimum cutoff point for the letter grade specified. • These numbers are based on the percentage of total points available, which is 100: • A = 93; • A‐ = 90; • B+= 85; • B = 80; • C+= 75; • C = 70; • D+= 65; • D = 57. • Anything below 57 is an F. Reading List • I will give you a reading assignment for the next class at the beginning of the present class’s lecture. • Your first reading assignment is: – Chapter 8: Sampling Distributions; confidence intervals for one mean (pp. 294‐318) – Chapter 9: One‐Sample Hypothesis Tests (pp. 340‐365) • These chapters are not in the custom text. They are in the on‐ line version, to which you have access as a result of purchasing the bundle. • Chapters 8 and 9 are a review. I will probably devote all of next week to this review. 6 1/19/2011 Go to the Handouts section of the course web site. • These deal with Chapter 8. Bring them next class. – Minitab Experiment – Central Limit Theorem – Minitab Experiment Output • This deals with Chapter 9. Bring it next Wednesday. – Steps in Hypothesis Testing Connect Component to Res Ec 211 • There will be 15‐20 practice or prelecture assignments during the semester. • A given day’s practice is normally activated at 8:00 p.m. on the day of the previous lecture. It is deactivated (i.e., turned off) one‐half hour before the given day’s lecture. • You are graded on the basis of your correct answers to the exercises. • To get credit, you must do them within the time constraint. • You are not limited to the number of times that you attempt a question. Your First Connect Prelecture Or Practice Exercise • I will assign this by 7:00 p.m. Thursday, the latest. • Due date will probably by the following Thursday. • It will deal with material from Chapter 8. 7 1/19/2011 The PRS Component • We begin using PRS for real on Monday, January 24. • You must register your clicker ID number. • My scoring scheme for PRS will be described in Connect and PRS Components. Missing A PRS Session • If you do not bring your clicker to class, • if the battery in your clicker quits, • or if you decide not to attend a class (for whatever reason), • you can’t engage in PRS activities. • You are permitted to miss up to two daily PRS sessions with no penalty. Get out your clicker. • Here’s a practice PRS question. • What is your age? • Enter your answer as a whole number. 8 1/19/2011 A (1‐α) Confidence Interval: X-z α 2 σx n μ • μ is bounded on the left by X-z α 2 X+z α 2 • μ is bounded on the right by X+z α 2 σx n σx n σx n X For this interval to be correct, must abide by the distribution of z, which is the normal distribution. • What if is based upon observations that are drawn from a (parent) population X that is anything but normal? X • Irrespective of the underlying (parent) population, what if is based on a small number of draws, e.g. n=2, versus a large number, e.g. n=30? 9 ...
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course FINOPMGT 250 taught by Professor Kouzehkanani during the Spring '08 term at UMass (Amherst).

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