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Unformatted text preview: 1/19/2011 Lecture 1: January 19, 2011
• The Course:
• Intermediate Statistics for Business and Economics
• Course Number: FinOpMgt 250/Res Ec 213 • Who Am I? • Bernard J. Morzuch
• You don’t have to call me Doctor Morzuch.
• I can’t draw blood.
• I’m still taken aback by the title “Professor” Morzuch.
• If you insist on a title, you may call me
Mr. Morzuch. • But “Mr.” Morzuch is my dad. He’s still alive! • If you insist on a title, what is suitable?
• Call me Uncle Bernie.
• Everybody has an Uncle Bernie. • Let’s check out:
• Sections of the syllabus 1 1/19/2011 • Web Site:
• The following URL lets you gain access to pertinent material for the course. You may want to bookmark this address:
• Once there, click on:
• Syllabus • CONNECT & PRS Components
• Reading List • Lecture Notes
• Handouts • Spire ID/PRS Transmitter
• CONNECT Student Login • Spark
• I already sent you a copy of the syllabus. • Teaching Assistants and Office Hours:
• Undergraduate TAs:
– Robin Breen
– Ilya Chernyakovskiy
– Arjun Saraswat
– Chelsea Blanchard
– Justin Pinkos
– William Fan
• Undergraduate TA Office Hours: SOM 321 B
– I will let you know their office hours next Monday.
• Graduate TAs:
– Christopher Burns
– Jonathan Farland
• Graduate TA Office Hours: Stockbridge 210
– I will let you know their office hours next Monday. • Required Text:
• It is available at the Textbook Annex and also on‐line directly from the publisher.
• Custom edition of Applied Statistics in Business & Economics, Volume 2 (ISBN: 9780077489120) by David P. Doane and Lori E. Seward, 3rd
edition. • This is Chapters 10‐17 of the original text.
• An on‐line tool named Connect comes bundled with the custom edition of the text.
• What is Connect? 2 1/19/2011 What is Connect ?
• It is similar to OWL. • It provides access to all of the problems in the text. • It permits me to create practice or “pre‐lecture” exercises out of these problems.
– I will assign problems to you.
– You will complete them before the next class. • It also permits me to create quizzes on‐line and therefore to get away from paper grading of quizzes.
• Connect is an integral part of this course, and everyone must have it. • Radio Frequency Personal Response System (RF PRS) Transmitter:
• This is required for use during lectures and is available at all Textbook Annex checkouts. • You will not find it in the same location where you purchase the textbook. • New price is $52. Used price is $39. • There is no reason not to buy a used transmitter. • Both new and used transmitters come with fresh batteries. • The Textbook Annex will buy the transmitter back at the end of the semester. I can’t give you a price, but it is usually about half the purchase price.
• The RF PRS transmitter is used in 32 other courses. About The Course
• Prerequisites: – Res Ec 212 or Res Ec 211 or Statistics 240 • What this course is:
– the second course in a two‐course sequence for Isenberg School of Management majors and for some Res Ec majors
– an introduction to some relatively sophisticated methods for analyzing data and drawing inferences from data. – These methods are beyond a first course in statistics and are used a lot in business and economics. 3 1/19/2011 Examinations
• There will be two two‐hour examinations in addition to a final exam. • The first two exams are scheduled for Friday, February 25 and Friday, April 8. • Each exam is scheduled from 3:30‐5:30 p.m. • A final exam will be scheduled during finals week. • We never know the exact date for the final exam until later in the semester. • Don’t make plans for leaving until the final is over.
• The lower of the first two exams counts 10% toward your final grade. • The higher of the first two exams counts 30% toward your final grade. • The final exam counts 35% toward your final grade. Connect‐Based Requirements:
• You will have 15‐20 practice or “pre‐lecture” assignments during the semester using Connect. • Completing these counts for 5% toward your final grade. • You will also take 5‐10 Connect quizzes during the semester. • Connect quizzes count 10% toward your final grade. • I will have all of this spelled out in “Connect and PRS Components” on my web page. This will be ready sometime next week. PRS Activities
• Each transmitter (or clicker) has a unique ID. • You must register your clicker to create a link between your clicker ID and your Spire ID. • Do the registration by following the directions in Spire ID/PRS Transmitter on the course web site. • You will earn a PRS score based on correct responses to questions during each lecture.
• You must bring your transmitter to each lecture to earn points! • PRS activities count for 5% of your final grade. • Read “Connect and PRS Components” on the course web site. Again, this will be ready next week. 4 1/19/2011 Storing Your SPIRE ID Into Your Radio Frequency (RF) Unit
10. Turn on Clicker‐‐ Battery symbol displayed
Stop scan by hitting “*” on the keypad Hit “*” again which takes you to the Setup Menu
Scroll Up to ID:
Hit “Send/Enter” key (green button)
Type ID number; your 8 digit SPIRE ID number
Hit “*” to exit Setup Menu
ID is now stored in the unit
Can now re‐scan by selecting New Class Scan, or by turning unit off and on. This may take minutes! Cheating
• The University has a very strict policy on academic dishonesty, which you should know. • If you are ever suspected of cheating, you risk earning an F for the course. • You also risk being suspended from the University.
• Are you inclined to “click” for a friend?
• My advice: the cost is much greater than the expected benefit.
• Are you inclined to be dishonest on an exam?
• Talk to me before you do so. Discussions • Discussions meet each Friday in various SOM classrooms. • Discussion times:
– 9:05 a.m. – 9:55 a.m.
– 10:10 a.m.‐11:00 a.m.
– 11:15 a.m.‐12:05 p.m.
– 12:20 p.m.‐ 1:00 p.m.
• Discussion Agenda Item 1:
– You will address issues for problems with worked‐out solutions.
• Discussion Agenda Item 2:
– You’ll be a member of a five‐person or six‐person team. – You’ll do a statistical analysis on an assigned topic.
– At the conclusion, one member from each group will give an oral presentation. Each group will do a different task.
• Discussions are graded. Discussion is worth 5% of your final grade.
• Discussions meet this Friday. Teams will be established. 5 1/19/2011 •
• Summary of Grading Scheme:
Lower of Exam 1 or Exam 2 10%
Higher of Exam 1 or Exam 2 30%
Connect prelecture assignments
Discussion 5% Total
100% • Final Grade:
• The following shows the minimum cutoff point for the letter grade specified. • These numbers are based on the percentage of total points available, which is 100: • A = 93;
• A‐ = 90; • B+= 85; • B = 80;
• C+= 75; • C = 70; • D+= 65; • D = 57. • Anything below 57 is an F. Reading List
• I will give you a reading assignment for the next class at the beginning of the present class’s lecture. • Your first reading assignment is:
– Chapter 8: Sampling Distributions; confidence intervals for one mean (pp. 294‐318)
– Chapter 9: One‐Sample Hypothesis Tests (pp. 340‐365)
• These chapters are not in the custom text. They are in the on‐
line version, to which you have access as a result of purchasing the bundle.
• Chapters 8 and 9 are a review. I will probably devote all of next week to this review. 6 1/19/2011 Go to the Handouts section of the course web site.
• These deal with Chapter 8. Bring them next class.
– Minitab Experiment – Central Limit Theorem
– Minitab Experiment Output • This deals with Chapter 9. Bring it next Wednesday.
– Steps in Hypothesis Testing Connect Component to Res Ec 211
• There will be 15‐20 practice or prelecture assignments during the semester.
• A given day’s practice is normally activated at 8:00 p.m. on the day of the previous lecture. It is deactivated (i.e., turned off) one‐half hour before the given day’s lecture. • You are graded on the basis of your correct answers to the exercises.
• To get credit, you must do them within the time constraint.
• You are not limited to the number of times that you attempt a question. Your First Connect Prelecture Or Practice Exercise
• I will assign this by 7:00 p.m. Thursday, the latest. • Due date will probably by the following Thursday.
• It will deal with material from Chapter 8. 7 1/19/2011 The PRS Component
• We begin using PRS for real on Monday, January 24. • You must register your clicker ID number. • My scoring scheme for PRS will be described in Connect and PRS Components. Missing A PRS Session
• If you do not bring your clicker to class, • if the battery in your clicker quits, • or if you decide not to attend a class (for whatever reason), • you can’t engage in PRS activities. • You are permitted to miss up to two daily PRS sessions with no penalty. Get out your clicker.
• Here’s a practice PRS question.
• What is your age? • Enter your answer as a whole number. 8 1/19/2011 A (1‐α) Confidence Interval:
X-z α 2 σx
n μ • μ is bounded on the left by X-z α 2 X+z α 2
• μ is bounded on the right by X+z α 2 σx
For this interval to be correct, must abide by the distribution of z, which is the normal distribution. • What if is based upon observations that are drawn from a (parent) population
that is anything but normal? X
• Irrespective of the underlying (parent) population, what if is based on a
small number of draws, e.g. n=2, versus a large number, e.g. n=30? 9 ...
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course FINOPMGT 250 taught by Professor Kouzehkanani during the Spring '08 term at UMass (Amherst).
- Spring '08