Lect15 - Reasoning under Uncertainty Extrapolate Shift from...

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Reasoning under Uncertainty Extrapolate Shift from Classical Planning to Reinforcement Learning Classical Planning Logic as reasoning engine Model is purely analytic Deep (first-order expressiveness) Brittle (uncertainty is unavoidable and catastrophic) Reinforcement Learning Decision Theory (statistics) as reasoning engine Model is largely empirical Shallow (propositional expressiveness) Robust (model is fit / adapted to the real world) Apply this paradigm shift to reasoning more generally
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Reasoning under Uncertainty Qualification Problem Laziness Theoretical Ignorance Practical Ignorance Computational Issues It is sometimes better not to model the world accurately (consider a coffee cup…) Our models are always “approximate” “All models are wrong, but some are useful” - George Box, famous statistician
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Ontology / Semantics of Uncertainty Fuzzy logic the world is imprecise “John is tall” Linguistic variables Characteristic functions / fuzzy sets Frequentist statistics the distribution is real (world) Classical statistics; probability = long run average Data helps us approximate it Bayesian statistics the data is real Subjective probabilities Evidence for different distributions
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Religious wars among Statisticians (are you a Bayesian?) Frequentist / objectivist / classical statistics / Fisherian
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This note was uploaded on 10/13/2011 for the course CS 440 taught by Professor Levinson,s during the Fall '08 term at University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign.

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Lect15 - Reasoning under Uncertainty Extrapolate Shift from...

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